Amid an AI-driven capex upcycle among memory and logic customers, ASML has raised its 2026 revenue outlook. The Dutch chipmaking tool giant now expects sales to reach €36 billion to €40 billion (US$42–47 billion), up from its previous forecast of €34 billion to €39 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%, according to its press release.

As noted by Bloomberg, to meet surging demand, ASML’s key customers—including TSMC and Samsung Electronics—are ramping up production investments. TSMC in January signaled capital expenditure of up to US$56 billion for this year, while SK hynix has mapped out plans to spend roughly US$8 billion on ASML’s advanced tools under an agreement extending through 2027, the report adds.

In an Investing.com transcript, Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML, said both memory—particularly DRAM—and advanced logic customers are continuing to ramp adoption of EUV as well as immersion lithography tools. He added that much of this demand is backed by long-term commitments from their customers’ end clients, in line with recent moves by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to secure multi-year supply agreements with major cloud service providers.

South Korea Demand Surges as China Weakens

According to CNBC, ASML reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, with net sales reaching €8.8 billion (US$10.4 billion), ahead of the €8.5 billion consensus forecast from LSEG. Net profit came in at €2.8 billion, also beating expectations of €2.5 billion. The results landed toward the upper end of the company’s previously guided range of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion in quarterly revenue, the report suggests.

Notably, ASML saw a sharp increase in South Korea demand, with the region contributing 45% of its Q1 sales, up from 22% in 4Q25. According to SeDaily, Samsung is ramping up lithography capacity through a large-scale equipment order, securing around 20 EUV systems from ASML for sub-10nm advanced process nodes. Including DUV tools, total lithography orders reach roughly 70 units, mainly destined for its Pyeongtaek P5 Line 1 fab, the report adds.

Another South Korean memory giant, SK hynix, will secure EUV lithography equipment from ASML worth approximately 12 trillion won over a two-year period, The Elec reports, adding that the order is understood to cover about 24 EUV systems, based on industry estimates of roughly 500 billion won per unit.

On the other hand, China accounted for just 19% of ASML’s 1Q26 sales, down sharply from 36% in 4Q25.

As noted by Bloomberg, ASML is facing intensifying geopolitical pressure in China—its largest market last year—after U.S. lawmakers earlier this month proposed tighter export controls on all immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools, along with restrictions that would bar engineers from servicing equipment at certain Chinese facilities.

According to TradingView, China accounted for around 33% of ASML’s 2025 sales, but forecast that the contribution would fall to roughly 20% in 2026 amid escalating geopolitical restrictions.

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(Photo credit: ASML)