Is AI a bubble? Not yet. Our updated dashboard tracking the investment wave currently has no gauges in the red, two in amber, and the rest in healthy green (just).

Since our last update, AI revenues have continued to rise, reaching $126 billion over the last twelve months as of July. We also experienced a jumpy market, which led to a severe correction in semiconductor stocks, somewhat cooling public valuations. On our side, we have improved the methodology for counting AI capex (we show both the published and restated series below).

That demand has smacked headlong into a tight supply of compute capacity, which is being met by increasing investment in infrastructure. And with that comes more risk. While the hyperscalers are still using a large share of their cash reserves, they are increasingly scouring the globe for capital, both straight-up debt and increasingly intricate financing vehicles. As Michael Parekh argues, this “gaming of the system” is not only rational; it is necessary, as long as revenue is compounding. But these structures can become brittle if it slows.

Funding quality has deteriorated since Sep 2025. In our base case, we expect it and economic strain to turn red during 2027.

The full analysis shows where the tension is building.

For members, we:

• Update all five boom-or-bubble gauges with new data

• Show why AI revenues are outrunning even higher infrastructure spending.

• Discuss the web of debt, leases and guarantees now underpinning the buildout.

• Explain our outlook through 2027 and the signals that would change our minds.

The verdict remains boom, not bubble.