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Exponential View

To err is human! 🔮 Americans hate AI; the future of growth & planning for over the horizon++ #602 🚨 AI doesn’t need a mind to run amok 🧠 I do not want your brains to rot 🔮 What would Adam Smith make of AI? 📈 Anthropic’s $517 billion shopping list 🔮 Look up, the curve turned 📈 AI revenue hit $229 billion 🔮 Astra, the good, the bad and the ugly EV #600 📈 Data to start your week 🔮 The containment era #599 📈 Data to start your week 🔮 Why one AI is better than four #598 🏦 The problem with petards 🫧 Is AI a bubble yet? Our five gauges say no 🔮 Introducing: AI Economy Research Fellowship 📈 Data to start your week 🔮 The curious economics of a $6 AI agent #597 What the Google DeepMind exodus tells us about the AI cycle 📈 Making sense of the AI capex logjam 🔮 Agents form alliances, DeepMind’s reset & how likely is a crash? #596 🔮 Seven lessons for managing AI agents 📈 Data to start your week 🔮 Leopold & exponential markets; transformative GLP-1s; runaway AI & the future of safety++ 📚 My non-obvious summer reading list 🔮 For AI adopters, success and failure looks the same right now 📈 Data to start your week 🔮 The curious case of AI distillation 🔮 Will Kimi K3 change the economics of AI? 📈 Data to start your week
🔮 Exponential View #591: Never skilling; China’s self-rel...
Exponential View · 2026-07-05 · via Exponential View

“Always an excellent perspective on emerging systems and their impact across the human landscape.” — Neill K., a paying subscriber

Our friends at Ramp and Revelio Labs released fresh data on AI jobs impact, based on more than 21,000 US firms. They find that heavy adopters grow headcount faster, not slower. These firms increased employment by about 10% over two years after adopting AI. Entry-level roles grew even faster, at 12%.

[H]igh-intensity AI firms are selecting different kinds of candidates. In this case, we believe they are selecting for a new set of skills, specifically, people who know how to use AI and use it well. Entry-level workers, especially recent graduates and college students, are a natural place to look.

We’ve written before that the widely accepted narrative that AI replaces jobs is too simple – this still holds. The opposite claim, that there’s nothing to worry about, is simplistic as well. Labor markets are complex but we can make some assumptions about what’s going on:

First, complementarity. If AI makes workers more productive, firms may want more workers because the return on each additional hire rises.

Second, supervision. As AI-generated work increases, firms may need more people to manage, review and quality-control that output.

Third, demand expansion. If the cost per task falls, more tasks become viable. Latent demand becomes actual demand. (Exactly what has happened with computing since the 1970s.)

Some firms are now learning that they fired people too quickly, mistaking task automation for human obsolescence. As we argued, the initial gains from AI show up in individual productivity, but the harder prize comes when firms redesign entire workflows and decision-making loops around it. There’s no evidence so far that humans aren’t needed in this redesign.

See also:

  • Medicine is trying to protect against “never skilling,” the risk that trainees rely on AI so much that they never develop clinical judgment.

  • Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs expects AI adoption to temporarily displace about 9% of the US workforce over a 10-year transition.

US chip controls have driven China to treat open-source as resilience infrastructure, a new paper argues. Following each major US export control event since 2022, forking of LLM repos on GitHub jumped among China-linked developers but barely moved among US developers – 0.143 additional forks per repository-week for China vs 0.012 for the US, an 11x gap:

When uncertainty around upstream inputs rises, developers appear to increase engagement with open, locally runnable model infrastructure… [This is] a broader shift toward distributed innovation ecosystems that can expand participation, accelerate diffusion, and increase resilience under geopolitical and technological constraints.

Qwen and DeepSeek spread into research and commercial work globally almost as quickly as the best US models. But when authors examined US patents, the use of Chinese-origin models was rarely disclosed.

Another new paper suggests that Chinese innovation is becoming more self-reliant. The share of science produced in China that underlies domestic patents has grown from 1% in 2000 to 26% in 2025. China still builds on research done elsewhere, but domestic research is growing.

See also: