The proposed investment in digital infrastructure, skills and innovative digital companies is expected to deliver long-term economic growth, with the biggest gains coming from support for private digital investment.

The study, based on the JRC’s Regional Holistic Model (RHOMOLO), explores nine scenarios with varying levels of investment in financial instruments (such as those under the current InvestEU programme) versus investment in the development of digital infrastructures. By 2037, the EU’s annual GDP could be €13-16 billion higher per year as a result of the ECF Digital Leadership window, equivalent to 0.07-0.085% of the EU’s total economic output.

Around 26% of each country’s GDP increase comes from spillover effects, through the cross-border productivity impact of digital investments. The study highlights that investing in pan-European digital infrastructure could generate positive economic results beyond the countries that receive direct funding.

Next steps

The findings suggest that well-planned allocation of funds, particularly towards supporting innovative companies, could maximise the ECF’s impact. These insights will help shape the final design of the Digital Leadership window of the ECF, ensuring it delivers the greatest possible economic benefit for all Member States.

Read the study: The ex-ante RHOMOLO assessment of the macroeconomic impact of the ECF Digital Leadership window 2028-2034