IN SPACE - OCTOBER 8: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, was pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)
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The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is just about two weeks away. Tropical storms and hurricanes affect U.S. mortality rates, infrastructure, and the economy. As we approach the 2026 season, here are eight things you need to know about it.
Nobody actually knows the answer to that question. NOAA will release its seasonal prediction on May 21, but Colorado State University forecasters offered their early assessment in April. They call for thirteen named storms, six hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. All of those numbers are near or slightly below the average from 1991 to 2020.
TOPSHOT - An aerial view of destroyed buildings following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, in Black River, St. Elizabeth, Jamaica on October 29, 2025. Hurricane Melissa bore down on the Bahamas October 29 after cutting a path of destruction through the Caribbean, leaving 30 people dead or missing in Haiti and parts of Jamaica and Cuba in ruins. Somewhat weakened but still threatening, Melissa will bring damaging winds and flooding rains to the Bahamas Wednesday before moving on to Bermuda late Thursday, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC). (Photo by Ricardo MAKYN / AFP) (Photo by RICARDO MAKYN/AFP via Getty Images)
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The 2025 season was a bit of “Jekyll and Hyde” relatively speaking. “The Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which five became hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including four major hurricanes with winds reaching 111 mph or greater,” wrote NOAA’s website. “An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes," they continued.
However, the 2025 season featured four major hurricanes and three Category 5 storms. Hurricane Melissa, which ravaged Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti, is now tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record and was the most powerful storm anywhere on Earth in 2025.
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Six lists are used on a six-year rotation basis. The names on the 2026 list below will reappear in 2032 unless a storm is very costly or deadly. In that case, the name is retired from the list. The name list is managed by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization, and they follow a strict set of procedures from determining retirement, names once the list is exhausted, and so on.
2026 Atlantic basin names.
NWS
The Atlantic basin season “starts” June 1 and “ends” November 30. However, I used quotation marks because there is nothing magical about those dates. Physics takes precedent. Increasingly, we have seen tropical storms form earlier than June and later than November. That will likely continue in years to come. From my perspective, we may have to rethink the concept of “hurricane season," but I digress.
Meteorological summer begins on June 1. Traditionally, the peak of the Atlantic basin season is in late August to early September. Why? That’s typically how long it takes for ocean temperatures to warm to the threshold value of nearly 80 degrees Fahrenheit to support tropical cyclone development. Temperatures in excess of 82 degrees Fahrenheit are considered ideal conditions for tropical storm or hurricane development.
Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity.
NOAA and NWS
During hurricane season the focus is typically on the Atlantic basin because those storms tend to pose more of a threat to populated islands and the U.S. coasts. However, there is an Eastern Pacific hurricane season that starts on May 15. Water temperatures typically warm up earlier in this region. This year, the presence of an emerging El Niño and its associated warmer equatorial waters could mean a more active Eastern Pacific basin season.
If El Niño forms as expected, it could suppress Atlantic basin activity, however. “With the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” noted Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team. “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” they continued.
El Nino influence on hurricane activity.
NOAA
Global geopolitical forces and other factors placed pressure on gas prices recently. Could the hurricane season affect them too? It’s too early to tell, but historically, tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf has affected oil supply. “Hurricanes can significantly disrupt U.S. offshore crude oil production as well as refining activity,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration website. Offshore oil platforms are often evacuated if storms are impacting the Gulf. Additionally, many refining facilities are located along the Gulf Coast. Climatologically, early season storm formation points are typically clustered in the Gulf.
As always, my main advice right now is to be aware of the season but do not anchor too heavily on seasonal predictions and their absolute numbers. They are not the gospel. The season could end up being more active than normal. Even if it isn’t, it only takes one life-altering hurricane to change lives and communities forever.
Where storms form in June typically.
NOAA
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