Every country has a handful of things it is unusually good at selling to the rest of the world. Germany sells cars and machinery; France sells wine, aircraft and luxury goods; the UK sells financial, legal and consulting services. In other words, the sectors where they punch above their weight in world markets – economists call this “comparative advantage”.

These advantages usually shift slowly. A country’s strengths today are a good indicator of its strengths even decades ago. Wholesale swings, where a nation that mostly exports goods becomes one that mostly exports services (or vice versa) don’t happen very often. Strengths, in other words, are sticky.

Which is what makes the past five years so unusual for the UK. Not only has its trade profile moved a lot, but it’s moved in the opposite direction to its peers. And the sectors we are quietly walking away from are, concerningly, many of the sectors the Government has built its Industrial Strategy around.

France, Germany and the United States all sit at or below one, in the bet-hedging zone. They have been gradually reshaping their export profiles, easing off established strengths and letting weaker sectors catch up. The UK sits highest of all 19 advanced economies we looked at, on both a five- and a ten-year view. Where others rebalanced, Britain leaned in. All bets are off.

While its peers reshape their export profiles, the UK is doubling down on its existing strengths

None of this means Britain is getting it wrong. Leaning into genuine strengths is a sensible economic strategy. But it raises the stakes on the goods the country has decided still matter and where the UK’s advantage is eroding. Since 2019, three in four UK goods lines have seen the UK lose market share. The honest task now is to triage: defend the sectors pulling ahead, like aerospace; fight for a select few of those still in play, like pharmaceuticals; and be clear-eyed about those, like microchips, where the race may already be run. Doubling down is a bet and it pays to think carefully about which horses you are backing.

Stephen Hunsaker is an Economist at the Resolution Foundation. You can follow him on BlueSky to stay up to date with his analysis. Read ‘Leaving EU behind’ to learn more about how Britain lost its trading edge and whether Brexit is to blame.