WHAT’S INSIDE

Top Signals: Jobs Report Friday points to stagflation &, bond market reprices (10Y 4.44%) as Warsh faces “cuts vs hikes” squeeze

Big Movers: Mag 7 / AI capex thesis at risk as yields tighten, Anthropic nears $1T valuation on $65B raise & SpaceX boosts IPO odds with $6.45B Space Force wins

Open Deals: Groq seeks $650M for inference neocloud expansion, & Base Power in talks for $1B at $12B valuation (home battery backup)

Mega Rounds: XCENA $135M (memory-centric AI chip), Corgi $106M (AI insurance; $2.6B val), & Thea Energy $100M (fusion) plus Observable Space $90M 

Exit Watching: Autodesk buys MaintainX for $3.6B, Asana acquires StackAI for $75M, & FalconX files confidentially for IPO (raised at $8B)

The Funding Buzz: Atomus (ex-Khosla partner) targets $500M new fund, & Lightning Capital raises $100M Fund II (AI infra) adding ex-a16z partner

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⚠️ TOP SIGNAL ALERT

The Key Signals We are watching this Monday that will shape the week ahead:

Jobs Report Friday - Stagflation Signal With 90K Jobs

Labor market resilience + sticky inflation + growth slowdown collision. Expected 90K jobs added May keeping unemployment at 4.3%, but PCE inflation at 3.8% annually (well above 2% Fed target) while Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6% growth. Bloomberg survey shows traders watching this report to confirm rate hike expectations. Bond yields already repriced higher tightening financial conditions equivalent to ~0.75% Fed hikes. Northlight CIO says "rising inflation coupled with slowing growth is opposite of what we want" making rate cuts increasingly unlikely in 2026 or 2027.

Why It Matters: If jobs data comes in strong while inflation stays elevated, bond market will price in more aggressive Fed tightening. 10-year yields already at 4.44% up from 3.9% end February. Fed Chair Warsh will face political pressure for cuts while inflation data screams hike. Mag 7 AI capex thesis assumes financing costs stay low - stagflation scenario breaks that entirely.

Fed Rate Hike Priced In - Bond Traders Betting On 2027

Traders see a rate hike by mid-2027 or sooner driven by inflation + labor resilience. Combined with elevated oil prices and reaccelerating inflation, bond traders expect Fed to remove easing bias in June meeting under Kevin Warsh. Energy price spike from Iran war has tightened financial conditions by equivalent of ~0.75% rate increases already. Yields have risen creating headwinds - 2-year at ~4% (60bp above Fed funds), 10-year at 4.44% (down from 5% peak but up 50bp from late February). Options trade emerged targeting 10-year above 5% within months.

Why It Matters: Market consensus has shifted from Warsh cutting rates to Warsh hiking rates. If jobs report Friday shows continued labor strength, bond traders will accelerate rate hike bets. Mag 7 financing costs rise, AI capex ROI calculations change, S&P valuation multiples compress. Iran deal remains only narrative that breaks this - if oil crashes 20-30%, inflation narrative changes overnight.

Big Movers

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Anthropic — Raised $65B Series H reaching $965B valuation backed Samsung/Amazon with $47B ARR forecasting 130% revenue surge.

SpaceX — Secured two new Space Force contracts totaling $6.45B including $4.16B satellite contract/$2.29B low-Earth-orbit network boosting IPO prospects.

Cognition — AI coding agent Devin propelled Cognition to a $26B valuation with $492M ARR securing $1B funding to enhance AI models/infrastructure.

Figure AI — Humanoid robot developer using ChatGPT-style technology surged valuation from $500M in 2023 to $39B in 2026 despite minimal revenue underscoring significant robotics potential.

Dell — Stock soared 30% following $9.7B five-year AI software deal with Pentagon increasing CEO Michael Dell's net worth $34B with $43.8B total revenue.

ClickHouse — Analytics database platform reached $250M ARR tripling earnings in a year valued $15B with 4K+ customers six acquisitions eyeing IPO.

Kirkland & Ellis — Prominent law firm planning a $500M investment in custom AI platform for legal work starting with $100M 2026 involving 180+ tech professionals.

OPEN DEALS

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Groq — AI chip company seeking $650M expanding inference neocloud backed Disruptive/Infinitium after $20B non-acquisition Nvidia deal.

Base Power — Austin home-battery provider seeking $1B funding at $12B valuation with Ribbit Capital expected lead expanding backup power solutions.

IN THE MONEY

Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter

Massive Deals

Replit — Visa made an undisclosed investment in developer platform exploring payment integration testing Intelligent Commerce/Trusted Agent Protocol with enterprise contracts up $200K.

Airwallex — SF payments platform raised funding at $12B valuation (50% increase) with $1.5B ARR targeting $2B processing $100B for 40K+ businesses.

XCENA — Memory-centric AI chip startup raised $135M Series B at $570M valuation developing MX1 chip aiming mass-production end-2026 revenue 2027.

Corgi — AI insurance company raised $106M Series B1 doubling valuation to $2.6B shortly after $160M at $1.3B totaling $378M raised.

Thea Energy — Princeton fusion startup raised $100M Series B totaling $130M expanding magnet manufacturing supporting Eos demonstration reactor by 2030.

Large Deals

Observable Space — Detroit startup from PlaneWave merger raised $90M Series A led Lux Capital focusing laser/optical hardware orbital tracking secured $94M Space Force contract.

Reactor — SF AI video startup ex-Apple Vision Pro engineers raised $59M Series A led Lightspeed with WndrCo backing aiding global expansion/GPU scaling.

ClearNote Health — California health tech raised $52M Series D surpassing $185M total funding supporting commercial expansion of Avantect cancer detection/Virtuoso epigenomic platform.

Gray Swan — AI security platform Carnegie Mellon researchers raised $40M Series A co-led Wing Venture/Madrona enhancing go-to-market with Anthropic/OpenAI/Meta partnerships.

Canals — AI-driven company raised $35M revolutionizing wholesale distribution automating order/invoice processing processed 8M sales orders/$5B payables.

Smaller Deals

Polsia — Autonomous AI startup founded Ben Sera raised $30M at $250M valuation with no employees claiming near $10M annual revenue backed Sound/True/Offline ventures.

Saris — Workflow automation raised $28.8M Series A led 8VC with Audacious/Homebrew/Btech aiming automate 70% lending tasks banks/credit unions.

LightTable — AI-native pre-construction platform raised $22M Series A led Innovation Endeavors with Blackhorn/DivcoWest/9Yards Capital enhancing QA/QC product.

Solstice — AI-native pharma marketing raised $21M Series A led Transformation Capital boosting total $25M supporting market expansion with 12-fold speed improvement.

Byron — AI-enabled tax platform founded Blaze O'Byrne raised $9M seed led Square Peg with Sorenson/Liquid2/Correlation automating CPA tax workflows.

EXIT WATCHING

Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs

Autodesk — Design software leader acquiring MaintainX for $3.6B all-cash forming Autodesk Operations Solutions unit enhancing AI-driven insights/customer relationships.

Asana — Acquired StackAI workflow automation startup for $75M enhancing AI-native workplace platform with agent-building tech expanding AI product suite.

IPO Watch

Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:

SpaceX — Secured two Space Force contracts totaling $6.45B including $4.16B satellite contract/$2.29B low-Earth-orbit network boosting IPO prospects.

FalconX — California digital-asset broker confidentially filed S-1 with SEC for potential IPO targeting year-end listing previously raised $150M at $8B valuation.

THE FUNDING BUZZ

VC & PE Activity To Watch

[Open Fund] Atomus — Khosla Ventures partner Ethan Choi launching Atomus VC firm aiming raise $500M fund investing early-stage tech startups across sectors.

Lightning Capital — Miami/SF investment firm raising $100M second venture fund backing early-stage AI-driven infrastructure startups added ex-Andreessen Horowitz partner Michele Griffin as GP.

Playground Global — Palo Alto VC raised $475M fourth fund focusing deep-tech/earthbound solutions including compute architectures/semiconductor materials/energy tech building on past successes.

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