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Top Tech News: Sticky 3.7% PCE, Nvidia’s $442B surge, chip-tariff push, Venezuela oil talks, stalled AI regulator, copper squeeze
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On Thursday Nvidia added $442B in one day, the second-biggest one-day gain any stock has ever posted, and dragged the whole US market up while nearly every other sector fell. Underneath that record lies a less rosy macro setup: federal debt just passed $40T, the Treasury is buying back its own bonds to hold off a bond vigilante revolt, and Washington has turned the dollar and tariffs into economic weapons directed against… well pretty much everyone. The response tells you plenty. Central banks bought a record $22B of gold in three weeks and are choosing metal over US Treasuries, and copper just hit a six-month high.
The blowout came first. Nvidia told investors revenue would grow about 70% next year, far above the 44% Wall Street expected, and its shares jumped enough to lift the main indexes even as the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose less than 2%. At a value near $5.5T, Nvidia is the most valuable company on the planet, and its quarterly report has become the health check for the whole AI trade.
Nvidia is so big that most investors own a slab of it without ever choosing to. A plain S&P 500 fund is often close to 8%. A tech fund can run past 20%. Lovely on the way up. Just as fast in reverse. Nvidia also holds the dubious record for the largest one-day loss in history, nearly $600B gone in a single session over fears about China's DeepSeek model. Former BlackRock portfolio manager Edward Dowd warns that the market is now 40% to 50% AI and AI-adjacent, and that much concentration always ends the same way.
While Nvidia flew, Washington was busy shoring up its own books. The Treasury doubled a program to buy back its own debt, from $2B to $4B, starting September 9, and it is sitting on a cash pile close to $1T. The 30-year borrowing rate is near 5.25%, the highest since 2007. Parts of the picture look fine. Corporate profits just hit a record 13.2% of GDP, and most companies locked in cheap loans years ago. Some maintain Washington has near-limitless borrowing capacity, can print as many dollars as it wants, and controls the world's reserve currency. True enough for now, but at this size of debt pile, the giant bond buyers start to fidget. Even Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan has said he no longer wants to hold long-dated US government paper. "If you lose the bond market, bad things happen," warned Chris Martenson, founder of Peak Prosperity.
Gold is trading near $4,600, and Goldman Sachs reckons it reaches $4,900 by year end. The buyers are not retail. Central banks bought a record $22B of gold in three weeks, the most in over a decade, and nearly every reserve manager on earth is stockpiling it. They are picking gold over US Treasuries, and the reason is trust. Once the US used the dollar as a weapon against Iran (and everyone who trades with them) through its Operation Economic Outcast sanctions, naming gold itself as a target, every unaligned country started wondering whether it was next in line. China has even set up gold exchanges in Hong Kong where you can swap yuan straight into metal. As Chris Martenson said yesterday, "the US has just been chipping away at the trust they have, weaponizing it time and time again."
The pull toward hard, real things runs wider than gold. Copper just hit a six-month high, with available metal in London Metal Exchange warehouses dropping to 106,950 tons. The driver here is narrower than panic. US tariff uncertainty is pulling metal toward American warehouses, and hedge funds are riding the headlines. Even so, it fits the same picture. Stuff you cannot print is getting scarce and getting bid, while paper promises wobble.
So where does that leave a normal portfolio in 2025? Indexes quietly load you up on a single chip at valuations that rhyme with the dot-com peak, and try to lure retail into upcoming big AI IPOs. Or you sit in cash, the one thing almost certain to lose value as fresh dollars flood in. Or you could look at hard assets, the way the world's central banks are leaning. One fact keeps this from tipping into doom. Nvidia trades at a forward 17.9x, cheaper than AMD at 37.2x and Intel at 46.2x, and its profits actually doubled. This is not 1999 math, even if the mood sounds familiar.
"If you lose the bond market, bad things happen."
— Chris Martenson, founder, Peak Prosperity
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