Top Signals: Warsh’s “AI productivity” Fed bet meets 3.8% inflation as markets price a Dec rate hike, & Trump’s Iran deal fakeout keeps oil >$100 / Strait of Hormuz risk
Big Movers: Nvidia posts a record AI/data-center quarter + Vera CPU; Anthropic nears first profit on $10.9B Q2 run-rate + Microsoft Maia talks.
Open Deals: Big raises/round extensions: Kalshi $200M add-on at $22B, Mercury $200M at $5.2B, & Farther $150M led by General Atlantic.
Mega Rounds: Exa $250M Series C at $2.2B, Hark $700M+ Series A at $6B, & Modal Labs $355M at $4.65B (AI coding infra).
The Funding Buzz: Playground Global $475M deep-tech fund, & Boulder Ventures $55M early-stage raise as AI infra + defense/energy themes stay hot.
The Key Signals We are watching this Monday that will shape the week ahead:
Kevin Warsh sworn in Friday invoking Alan Greenspan playbook betting AI productivity negates inflation but traders pricing virtually certain rate hike by December. 2-year Treasury hit 4.14% (highest in year, 40bp above Fed funds), 30-year touched 5.2% (highest since 2007). Fed Governor Christopher Waller says "can no longer rule out rate hikes." April FOMC minutes showed "majority" believe "policy firming would likely become appropriate" if inflation stays above 2% in most divided vote in 30+ years (8-4 decision/four dissents). Polymarket pricing 42% chance of 2026 hike, 70% chance zero cuts on $29M volume. Warsh plans less forward guidance like Greenspan 1990s while Treasury Secretary Bessent wants hold rates steady betting AI boosts productivity. White House adviser Hassett says Fed should ignore oil spike claiming "core has barely moved" though core PCE at 3.2% still 60% above 2% target.
Why It Matters: Total reversal from January when Fed signaled 1-2 cuts. Inflation hit 3.8% in April, core at 2.8%, wholesale prices surged 6%. Warsh inheriting 3.8% inflation NOT Greenspan's stable prices. Greenspan 1990s: oil stable, globalization accelerating. Warsh 2026: oil doubled to $100, Iran war, Strait of Hormuz blocked, commodity supercycle starting. Mag 7 burning $725B this year creates inflationary demand for energy/copper/chips now. Warsh pulling back forward guidance makes each decision more volatile. If Warsh hikes while Trump demands cuts for November midterms, political pressure explodes. Mag 7 committed $725B AI capex assuming low rates but financing at 4%+ changes entire investment thesis. Waller contradicted Hassett showing oil shock IS affecting policy. Bond market rejecting narrative with 2-year yield 40bp above Fed funds. Bessent/Warsh both want cuts but conflicts with Fed mandate to fight inflation making "independence" claim hollow.
President Trump posted Saturday evening deal with Iran would be "announced shortly" then Sunday morning said "don't want to rush into a deal" with "blockade will remain" until agreement reached. Rubio said more news could come Sunday. Iranian agency Thursday said Washington/Tehran "largely agreed" on ceasefire/reopening Strait of Hormuz causing oil to fall. Brent closed Friday above $100/barrel, WTI above $96. Iran's spokesman said "final stage" of "memorandum of understanding." Trump met with Saudi/UAE/Qatar/Turkey/Jordan/Pakistan leaders plus Netanyahu. Announcement included no details on Iran's nuclear enrichment, US sanctions on oil, or frozen assets.
Why It Matters: Classic Trump theater announcing deal to move markets then walking back. If deal closes, oil could crash 20-30% as Strait of Hormuz reopens and 12.4M barrels/day return with gas prices plunging from $4.10 potentially saving Republicans in November. But no details means deal could collapse any moment. White House adviser Hassett said "expect energy prices to plummet" giving Fed "room for lower rates" meaning entire Warsh easing case depends on Iran deal. If deal fails, oil spikes toward $120, inflation stays elevated, Fed forced to hike, S&P craters. Markets hit fresh highs (S&P 7,473, Dow 50,579) with Q1 growth +26% YoY (highest since 2021) despite "funereal tone" from CEOs. S&P near 7,500 despite 10-year yield breaking 4.5%, oil at $100, inflation at 3.8%. Market pricing AI productivity offsets all headwinds but if Iran deal collapses that 26% growth evaporates. VIX at 16.70 suggests complacency with nobody pricing tail risk. Markets as usual in 2026 are but one Trump post away from a reversal.
Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week
Nvidia — Reported record quarter with surging AI/data-center sales underscoring dominance/growth driven by robust demand. New Vera CPU tailored for agentic AI aims capturing $200B market positioning company as pivotal force.
Anthropic — Forecasting 130% revenue surge to $10.9B Q2 marking first operating profit potentially flipping OpenAI valuation. In talks with Microsoft accessing Maia 200 AI chips following $5B investment.
Eclipse Ventures — Achieved $2.5B return from $147M Cerebras investment with late-stage rounds in Wayve/True Anomaly signaling shift towards hardware-intensive sectors aligning AI/policy trends.
Nebius — Partnered with Bloom Energy utilizing fuel-cell tech for 328 MW clean power replacing gas-turbine generation for AI infrastructure in US enhancing reliability minimizing impact.
Apple — Petitioned the US Supreme Court reviewing contempt ruling over 27% commission on 3rd-p payment links arguing it exceeds Epic Games injunction scope.
Hark — Brett Adcock founded AI hardware startup raised $700M+ Series A valuing $6B led Parkway w/ Nvidia, AMD, Brookfield, Intel, Qualcomm, Salesforce.
Modal Labs — US AI startup raised $355M Series C at $4.65B valuation led Redpoint/General Catalyst offering compute resources for AI coding - $300M ARR.
Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week
SpaceX — Accelerating its IPO targeting $75B raise at $1.75T valuation potentially largest flotation listing Nasdaq June 12 leveraging fast-entry rules.
Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter
Exa — Web-search API startup raised $250M Series C achieving $2.2B valuation funding will bolster infrastructure scaling/next-gen model training/team expansion enhancing comprehensive search solutions.
Kalshi — SF trading platform raising additional $200M expanding round that secured $1B with Baillie Gifford joining valued $22B reporting annualized revenue exceeding $1.5B.
Mercury — Fintech raised $200M at $5.2B valuation (49% increase) planning become federally regulated bank expanding loans/AI tools with $650M annualized revenue aiming IPO.
Radar — Retail-tech startup raised $170M Series B reaching $1B+ valuation using RFID-based tech for real-time inventory visibility reducing out-of-stock issues/order cancellations.
Farther — NY AI-native wealth platform raised $150M Series D led General Atlantic now unicorn with $23B+ recruited assets planning enhance platform/support growth tripling year-over-year.
Vi — NY healthcare AI leader raised $145M at $1.64B valuation launching AI agents suite for healthcare/life sciences/wellness enhancing talent/platform leveraging Data Web.
SendCutSend — Manufacturing startup secured $110M led Sequoia/Paradigm/Stripe co-founders Patrick/John Collison reaching $1B valuation marking significant milestone for company.
Nourish — Virtual metabolic health clinic raised $100M Series C led Menlo Ventures expanding AI-driven care team enhancing services like lab testing/GLP-1 prescriptions targeting outcomes.
Unframe — AI delivery platform raised $50M bringing total $100M backed by Highland Europe/Bessemer with Framery booking $100M+ contract value first year.
Moment — US AI operating system for investment management raised $78M Series C led Index Ventures with a16z offering AI-driven trading/portfolio management/compliance automation.
Viktor — Warsaw/Munich AI coworker service raised $75M Series A led Accel founded 2023 connecting 3K+ workplace tools via Slack/Teams enhancing operational efficiency globally.
Commure — AI-enabled revenue cycle platform raised $70M bringing total $750M at $7B valuation led General Catalyst backed Sequoia/Morgan Stanley expanding tools/markets.
Scapia — Indian travel-fintech raised $63M all-equity led General Catalyst reaching post-money $500M+ valuation enhancing product expansion/AI-focused hiring boosting credit card.
Socket — Security platform raised $60M Series C at $1B valuation enhancing Socket Firewall/Certified Patches/AI tools supporting team growth/brand refresh protecting millions repositories.
Catena Labs — Founded Circle co-founder secured $30M Series A led a16z crypto/Acrew Capital developing regulated banking infrastructure for AI agents integrating Circle payment systems.
Variational — NY on-chain derivatives for real-world assets raised $50M Series A led Dragonfly with $200B+ processed volume planning expand markets integrate traditional finance 2026.
CircuitHub — Automated electronics manufacturing platform raised $28M to expand US/Europe operations boosting hardware development scaling factories reducing overseas reliance enabling low-volume production.
Findd — AI-native workforce management platform raised $21M from Unbundled Capital enhancing hiring/scheduling/payroll capabilities with Shane Skiffington joining as executive chairman for frontline industries.
Eisen — AI-enabled compliance operations platform for fintechs raised $18.5M combining $10M Series A/$8.5M seed automating workflows monitoring $16B across accounts planning expand team/coverage.
RemotePass — 2021-founded Employer-of-Record startup raised $17.4M Series B led EBRD Venture Capital totaling $28M serving Logitech/Tata expanding Europe/US enhancing product compliance.
Stilta — NY AI platform for IP cases raised $10.5M seed led a16z with Y Combinator automating patent research reducing litigation costs/time boosting AI adoption legal tech.
Checker — Digital-asset unification startup raised $8M from Galaxy Ventures/Al Mada Ventures/Framework Ventures expanding global payments introducing embedded lending deploying AI treasury tools targeting capital efficiency.
Neurosoft Bioelectronics — Swiss brain-computer interface startup raised $7.5M seed led Skybound Venture Capital bringing total $20M+ advancing BCI deployment in humans moving towards US commercialization building neural data platform.
Leadbay — SF B2B AI prospecting platform raised $4.3M seed from YC expanding US market team enhancing AI model through Sorbonne University growing engineering team.
Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs
Anthropic — Acquired Stainless NY startup specializing SDK infrastructure for OpenAI/Google/Cloudflare winding down hosted products integrating tech/team enhancing developer tooling stack.
Qualcomm — Considering acquiring AI chip startup Tenstorrent bolstering data-center/edge AI capabilities enhancing roadmap though posing integration risks/profitability challenges awaiting bid.
Google DeepMind — Acquiring 20+ researchers from Contextual AI licensing tech for $80-$90M enhancing capabilities aligning Alphabet strategy securing expertise avoiding antitrust issues.
Huxe — AI-powered podcast app founded ex-NotebookLM developers announced shutdown due to intense competition removing from stores giving users seven days to access/backup data.
Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:
SpaceX — Preparing IPO targeting $28.5T addressable market driven by AI initiatives including $1.25B mthly Anthropic contract despite $2.6B operating loss .
Manus — Considering a $1B financing buying back from Meta to match $2B Meta paid planning restructure as Chinese joint venture pursuing Hong Kong IPO.
Blockchain.com — Blockchain.com Group Holdings filed confidential draft S-1 with SEC for IPO of Class A shares with count/pricing pending market conditions/regulatory review completion.
OpenAI — Preparing IPO with 83% probability beating Anthropic to public markets fueled by court victory/prediction shifts despite spending/leadership concerns with strong competitor.
Oura — SF smart ring company confidentially filed IPO after rapid growth to 5M paid members/quadrupled revenue valued $11B post-Series E anticipating near $2B 2026 sales.
SB Energy Corp. — Backed SoftBank/OpenAI/Ares plans US IPO expanding power infrastructure for AI-driven data centers. Has secured $1.8B+ for this initiative.
THE FUNDING BUZZ
VC & PE Activity To Watch
Playground Global — Palo Alto VC raised $475M fourth fund focusing deep-tech/earthbound solutions including compute architectures/semiconductor materials/energy tech building on past successes.
Boulder Ventures — Boulder VC raised $55M for BV IX fund targeting early-stage tech/telecom/biotech investments leveraging entrepreneurial spirit/climbing achievements guiding investment strategy.
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Open Deals
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