LAST UPDATE | 16 mins ago
THE PEOPLE OF Makerfield in northwest England go to the polls today for what may just be the most consequential UK byelection of the modern era.
If Labour’s Andy Burnham wins, he is widely tipped to try and capitalise on the momentum and launch a bid to remove his party’s leader Keir Starmer from Downing Street and take over as prime minister.
The constituency – a collection of former mining villages and towns near Manchester – has seen the byelection narrow down to a two-horse race between Labour and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is essentially facing off against local Reform councillor Rob Kenyon.
But polls have thrown up a dynamic indicating a splintering on the British right, causing dismay among the set of voters whose main aim in this election is to halt Burnham’s ambition to become prime minister.
Almost every opinion poll has shown that Reform would either win the seat or make it a 50-50 fight with Labour, if not for the presence of the insurgent Restore Britain.
“What’s the point of this? The aim here should be to stop Burnham and Labour,” complained shopkeeper Steve Broadhurst of Restore’s challenge, when The Journal visited the constituency this week.
Broadhurst’s preferred choice is the Tories, who for generations had been the dominant player on the right wing of British politics, but with the Conservatives largely out of the picture in this vote, he had been planning to throw his lot in with Farage’s man.
This was echoed by an Iranian-British citizen who has voted Conservative for decades but now said he had to “throw the dice” on Reform.
The Tories have only been able to reach a miserly 3% in support, according to one poll earlier this month.
Asked about the hardline anti-migrant aims of Farage’s party, the Iranian man told us: “I’ve thought about that, but I really think I have no choice. I don’t want Labour to get in.”
Restore – founded only a year ago by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe – still only has a small presence in the UK’s electoral politics, but scored several council seats at the recent local elections in its leader’s constituency in the east of England.
The party has pushed for ever more extreme policies targeting immigrants, including seeking deportations in some cases where they claim welfare payments.
X owner Elon Musk has also endorsed the party, boosting its profile.
‘Vote Restore … Get Burnham’
The panic around Restore Britain was best demonstrated by the front page on the UK’s Mail on Sunday newspaper, warning voters against splitting the vote among parties on the right.
“Vote Restore…Get Burnham,” the headline read. The story beneath that banner carried allegations that some of Restore’s activists had attended a “white supremacy summit”.
Campaigners for Restore Britain’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd laughed off the Mail’s coverage when speaking to The Journal, describing it as a sign that Reform were “backed by the establishment” in Britain.
The two men – who we got chatting to in a pub watching the World Cup, while seeking locals to speak to about the election – would only agree to be quoted if their names weren’t published, and declined requests to speak on camera.
One man called the articles “weak sauce”, before he angrily added: “Why are they calling us white supremacists? We’re trying to save the fucking country.”
Another Restore Britain campaigner, aged in his early 40s, said he used to support Farage “tentatively” but felt he was “too wishy-washy” on anti-migrant ambitions.
“We wouldn’t have got Brexit without him, in fairness, but I always thought it was pathetic that he was the leader of the right in Britain.”
Expert’s view
Nicole Martin, professor in politics at University of Manchester, told The Journal that Restore Britain’s impact may be judged by how Reform reacts to the pressure.
The latter days of the campaign have seen Farage writing in a newsletter for supporters about the “anti-white” stances of the police and the government, including a promise to deport any foreign nationals in social housing who can’t get private accommodation within three months.
Martin pointed to data showing that Makerfield has between 94% and 97% white people in the constituency, with more than two-thirds of people owning their own home.
Immigration has fallen across the UK by 48% over the past year, but it has still “dominated for voters”, she said.
One polling company, More in Common, found that the number of people who believed police treat ethnic minorities more favourably than white people – the trope of ‘two-tier’ policing – has almost doubled in two years to 34%. Some 21% believe the police treat white people more favourably.
The polls were taken as part of reaction to the murder of student Henry Nowak, who was handcuffed as he lay dying, but before the recent violence in Belfast.
Martin argued that Restore was using “immigration as a buzzword” but that the party was “appealing to insecurities about who people think their country is for”, by pushing for exclusionary measures.
She added:
Restore want to contest the idea that Britain is a multi-racial, multi-ethnic democracy, so it’s less about immigration at this point.
Strong public support for Reform
Despite the challenge from Restore Britain, there is still wide support for Reform in Makerfield.
The recent local election saw Reform storm to more than a thousand seats in Britain and clean up in Makerfield, taking all council seats on official bar one. Labour was the main loser.
During The Journal’s visit to Makerfield, almost every residential street in the town of Ashton had at least one house displaying a Reform poster.
But Labour Party canvassers noted to this publication that they began to see some homes in recent days switch their Reform posters to those of Lowe’s party.
Today’s result will go a long way towards determining the path for some key parties in British politics, and for the country.
A result from Makerfield is expected early Friday morning.