MUCH OF THE analysis I offer in this space and elsewhere flows, at least in part, from spending an exorbitant amount of time poring over polling data. Of course, there are frequently repeated, rather dismissive maxims, such as “the only poll that matters is on Election Day”.
Indeed, the polls are occasionally wrong, but of late, owing to increasingly scientific methodologies, the opinion surveys are typically pretty accurate.
That said, I think that the two polls conducted in Dublin Central and Galway West, where people will choose successors to Paschal Donohoe of the World Bank and President Catherine Connolly, mightn’t necessarily tell the tale, especially given the relatively small sample and slightly higher margin of error in each. That said, again, these polls have been important in myriad ways and are the only guide keen watchers have to go on.
So, as Dubliners and Galwegians prepare to do their civic duty, what can we anticipate will transpire when the votes are counted on Saturday? With an abundance of currently unanswerable questions in the ether and without wishing to make hard and fast prognostications that could leave egg on my face, let’s consider the best and worst case scenarios for the key players.
Who’s in the picture?
The Social Democrats must be encouraged, possibly confident, behind closed doors. Daniel Ennis is the odds-on favourite in the capital, and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich is definitely in the mix in the west. If both are victorious, the Social Democrats will be the story, and the party led by the popular Holly Cairns will get a major boost. Even if only Ennis prevails and Nic Fhionnlaoich acquits herself reasonably, they would be the de facto winners of the byelections.
Conversely, if Ennis fails to live up to widespread high expectations – perhaps having peaked too early or suffering from the “sure thing” moniker being applied to him – and somehow falls short, and Nic Fhionnlaoich finishes far off the money, Cairns will be asked, “Where did it all go wrong?”
Fine Gael, which couldn’t have been optimistic as the contests loomed, looks to be in decent shape. Seán Kyne is today described by many “in the know” as the frontrunner in Galway, and Lord Mayor Ray McAdam is holding his own in Dublin.
Were Kyne to win and McAdam to demonstrate that he can take a seat in the next general election, Simon Harris and Co would have to be ecstatic. If Kyne doesn’t reach the promised land and McAdam isn’t quite as strong as is wished, prominent Fine Gaelers will ascribe the undesirable results to the fact that byelections aren’t made for government parties and seek to swiftly move on.
In this vein, one can already hear Micheál Martin contextualising Fianna Fáil’s losses in these constituencies. In Dublin Central, John Stephens appears to be nearer to the back of the pack than the fore and the 25-year-old Cillian Keane from the eastern end of the sprawling territory of Galway West doesn’t have much of a shot.
The soldiers of destiny will hope that a respectable slice of the citizenry – north of 10% in terms of first preferences – decide to “give a young man a chance.” They have to be realistic and see Keane as a potential contender in the future, having introduced himself to a broader swathe of the county. Further, the party cannot be pleased that Bertie Ahern’s unfortunate comments on immigration garnered more attention than the candidate he was canvassing for has. The grumbles will persist in some quarters about the Taoiseach’s leadership. That’s all there’ll be at this juncture, however.
All eyes on Mary Lou
Sinn Féin clearly has a lot on the line this weekend. As the main opposition party, an external observer would say that they need to win one, if not both, byelections – particularly when one of them is happening in Mary Lou McDonald’s own bailiwick. That seems a very tall order at the moment.
Janice Boylan, who was not McDonald’s pick, is evidently ahead of her rivals, but she may struggle when it comes to transfers. The Irish Times/TG4 poll has Sinn Féin’s standard bearer across the country, Mark Lohan, at merely 7%. Notwithstanding a narrative that Lohan is out of it and that his party is thus focusing on bolstering Boylan’s odds, my own suspicion, based on what I have seen and heard on the ground, is that Lohan is well-supported and may fare better than that.
If neither triumphs, internal murmurs and disquiet regarding McDonald’s position – which, in an unprecedented development for Sinn Féin, made it into the newspapers – in concert with bigger, complex questions as to her party’s ideological compass, may intensify.
Independent Ireland was the entity most obviously tied to the disruptive protests over fuel and plenty more besides last month that were heralded by commentators as a turning point that would have pivotal political repercussions. The controversial Noel Thomas’s campaign in Galway West, to an extent, can be seen as a barometer of the impact. The bookies rated him initially as a dead cert.
Trailing Kyne on first preferences according to the single poll, my own sense is that there is a shy Thomas vote there, which will catapult him to the top of the heap. Thereafter, it has been documented that Thomas is a Marmite-type individual who won’t be transfer-friendly. That may be so. Nonetheless, I’d bet there will be transfers that wind up with him, albeit via a circuitous route. Thomas is in it.
Labour is not at the races in Dublin; Nigerian-born Helen Ogbu surprised many in Galway by being third in the poll. I would be equally surprised if she performs that well. Ogbu absolutely is in a very good place for a general election and, if she were to become a TD, would instantly become an international political figure. For the Greens, Janet Horner should get a solid enough vote in Dublin.
Aontú and People before Profit – Solidarity will not be significant factors. For them, this has primarily been a profile-boosting exercise. As for intrigue, Gerard “the Monk” Hutch undeniably has a base. He is unlikely to replicate his extraordinary 2024 showing because byelections are a different kettle of fish. But if he opts to go again and the fates align, the third time could be the charm.
I swore off predictions at the start, yet if the proverbial gun were put to my head, I would guess Kyne in Galway (with little conviction) and Ennis in Dublin (with slightly more conviction). We shall soon see.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.