It's not just you. Democracy is on the decline.

Welcome to another edition of my "It's not just you!" series, in which I put data to something we've all been feeling. (The first installment was Not-Ship's very first dispatch — It's not just you. Uncertainty is through the roof.) As always, this exists because some very good people support it. You could be one of them — the cost is reasonable, and it keeps this work alive.

💙 Amanda

I spent four years on a politics degree. Yet, I've never talked about democracy as much as I have in the past year.

What was once just the stuff of a high school civics class is now a regular topic of conversation. And for good reason: Every leading approach to measuring democracy shows that the world has become less democratic.

And just two weeks ago, the V-Dem 2026 Democracy Report dropped a bit of a bombshell. For the first time in over half a century, the country that popularized "government of the people, by the people, for the people" has lost its status as a liberal democracy.

The US has dropped out of the highest category of democracy

To be fair, the US isn't the only country that has dropped categories in the past few years. Of 22 countries in Western Europe and North America, four others have recently fallen from liberal democracy status: Greece (2020), Canada (2020), Portugal (2023) and the UK (2024).

But the US, as always, is a bit of an outlier: "The speed with which American democracy is currently dismantled is unprecedented in modern history," according to the V-Dem report. It points directly to deteriorating freedom of expression, civil rights, checks and balances and rule of law.

Due to Trump's aggressive consolidation of presidential power, democracy in the United States has fallen back to levels found during the Civil Rights era.

Under Trump, democracy in the US has declined sharply

Liberal Democracy Index of the US, with the European average for comparison.

As a reminder, here's what was happening in the US in 1965: Malcolm X was assassinated. Alabama Highway Patrol brutally attacked hundreds of Black civil rights marchers in Selma, an event now known as "Bloody Sunday." President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act into law, which prohibited racial discrimination in voting.

Countries turning towards autocracy typically take about a decade to do so. But the pace of democratic erosion in the US has been shocking: "In terms of the speed of autocratization, Trump 2.0 outpaces not only Trump 1.0 but also the most prominent autocrats of the last 25 years," states the V-Dem report. "The speed of decline is comparable to some coups d'états."

Though it's where some of the most drastic declines are happening, the state of worldwide democracy isn't just about the US. Today, nearly three quarters of the world population live in autocracies. Only seven percent live in liberal democracies. For the average global citizen, democracy has dropped to levels last seen in 1978. And this decline is part of a decades-long trend.

Over the last century, democracy has advanced in waves. The most recent kicked off around 1970, transforming dictatorships worldwide into democracies. But according to a new analysis by Swedish political scientist Staffan Lindberg, that era ended in 2024. Over the past 25 years, an increasing number of countries have moved in the opposite direction. And now, the world is in the midst of a democratic reversal.

Historically, waves of democratization are followed by waves of autocratization

The number of countries moving towards autocracy or democracy over the last century.

Lindberg compares today's wave of autocratization to the first, which began in the 1930s and ended with the Second World War. By every measure, today's wave is worse.

"This current wave of autocratization is unprecedented in length, scope, and magnitude — and shows no sign of cresting," Lindberg concludes. "With the United States now turning into an autocracy, the future for remaining democracies is going to be challenging, to say the least."

The largest global dataset on democracy
The V-Dem Democracy Report itself is genuinely an astounding piece of work. It measures over 600 different attributes of democracy through a process that involves over 4,200 scholars and country experts.

100% INDEPENDENT

According to the V-Dem report, 73% of autocratizing governments make media censorship their weapon of choice. A further 64% attack freedom of academic expression. Obscuring facts and muddying the waters only helps democratic erosion.

Which is to say: Everything we do here at Not-Ship — analysis that shows you what is happening in the world and how we know — is more important than ever.

If you agree, it's time to become a paying member of Not-Ship.

FROM ELSEWHERE

Here's what I found interesting, important or delightful this week:

The Tehran toll booth. The Strait of Hormuz may actually be open, if you can pay. CBC's Andrew Chang breaks down how Iran could be generating boatloads of cash from the shutdown.

Open by appointment or happy accident. If you find yourself in the New York subway — specifically the downtown 6-train platform at 51st and Lexington — stop by this "data-art kiosk and conversation space". It's the latest from the Data Vandals, a duo that transform data into creative experiences.

Father Brown, Asimov and Margaret from Canada. Author of The Handmaid's Tale, Margaret Atwood, shares her unsettling interaction with the AI chatbot Claude. (Via the Quantum of Sollazzo newsletter.)

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