Northern Lights Forecast: What To Expect

NOAA is forecasting a G1-rated geomagnetic storm, so this is not a major aurora outbreak forecast. However, KP 4 conditions — which are predicted — can sometimes bring visible northern lights to the far northern tier of the U.S., especially near the Canadian border.

If the skies are clear, aurora watchers should look north, avoid bright lights, and use long-exposure settings on their phones or cameras. Cameras often detect faint aurora before the human eye can see color clearly. Here’s how to photograph the northern lights using a phone.

Aurora Alert: ‘Glancing Blow’ From CME

“G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 14 June, as the CMEs' effects wane,” stated NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in its forecast. It comes in the wake of a coronal mass ejection detected leaving the sun on June 11, which arrived at Earth early on Saturday, June 13.

A CME is a cloud of charged particles often created by solar flares. Unlike solar flares, which travel at light speed, CMEs move at up to 1,900 miles (3,000 kilometers) per second and take a few days to travel across the solar system. If they are Earth-directed, they can produce geomagnetic storms and auroras.

A UK Met Office forecast states that, although conditions are expected to gradually ease during 13 June, “solar wind speeds could become enhanced again if a glancing CME arrives during the period.”

Two other CMEs are also incoming, hence the uncertainty in the forecasts. Space weather can change rapidly, with forecasts revised frequently.

Northern Lights Alert: Moon Phase And Solstice

In the lead-up to the June solstice, nights become very short, with twilight persisting for much of the night in northern U.S. states and much of Canada. That limits darkness and makes the aurora more difficult to see.

However, the moon phase is perfect: a new moon on Sunday, June 14, means only a very slim crescent moon will be visible in the pre-dawn sky, essentially leaving the short night sky free of moonlight.

Aurora Forecast: Latest Updates

To check visibility in real time, use NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast or download apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast or Glendale Aurora for up-to-the-minute alerts and live solar wind data.

Whether aurora displays materializes largely depends on the interplanetary magnetic field, specifically its Bz component (you’ll find it in some of the above apps and on SpaceWeatherLive.com). Bz determines how easily solar energy enters Earth’s magnetosphere. When Bz points north, Earth’s field resists it; when Bz swings south, the two fields connect, allowing plasma to stream in. A sustained southward Bz of −5 nT or stronger usually signals an imminent display of aurora.

What Causes The Northern Lights

The northern lights are caused by the solar wind, a constant stream of charged particles flowing from the sun that interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While most are deflected, some particles spiral along magnetic field lines toward the poles, colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms high in the atmosphere. These collisions excite the gases, causing them to release energy as shimmering light.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.