The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supply.
Gallo Images via Getty Images
Can you imagine yourself and your life without access to energy? Rising prices have long dominated the debate over renewables. But recent geopolitical shocks are shifting the focus toward something more fundamental: security of supply and who controls it.
For years, the transition to renewable energy has been criticized for increasing costs and introducing volatility into energy systems.
Those concerns intensified following the disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe after the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. In countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, rising electricity prices were often linked to the rapid expansion of renewables, reinforcing the perception that the transition carried an economic penalty.
The argument gained further traction in the wake of Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness, which pointed to higher energy costs as a structural disadvantage compared to the U.S. and China.
But price is only part of the story. Recent events are forcing a broader reassessment of what matters most in energy systems. Availability, resilience, and control are now moving to the forefront.
Despite decades of investment in alternatives, fossil fuels still account for roughly 80% of global energy use. That dominance comes with a structural weakness. Supply is concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.
Major oil exporters include the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Iraq and a limited number of producers in the Middle East, Africa and South America. Norway stands as the only significant oil exporter in Europe, ranking eighth among the world’s top producers.
As a result, the vast majority of nations rely on imports, often transported across long and complex supply chains.
Liquefied natural gas is even more concentrated. The global LNG market is dominated by three major suppliers: the United States, Qatar, and Australia. Together, they account for the majority of internationally traded LNG. Russia has sizeable LNG operations, much exported through the “shadow fleet”.
Russian exports face growing constraints, including European Union plans to phase out imports by 2027 and additional U.S. sanctions targeting new capacity.
LNG depends almost entirely on sea trade, making it particularly exposed to disruption. These supply chains rely on critical maritime chokepoints. Around one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions, with a similar share of LNG trade. Other key routes include the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal.
Disruption at any of these points can have immediate global consequences. The recent escalation of tensions involving Iran has once again highlighted how quickly supply risks can translate into price spikes and market instability.
Energy is not just another commodity. It underpins transport, food production, manufacturing, and heating. When supply is disrupted, the effects ripple across entire economies.
In stable conditions, global energy markets have functioned effectively for decades, particularly since the oil crisis in 1973 when oil prices quadrupled over a couple of months.
Supply chains adapted, trade flows balanced, and disruptions were relatively contained. That balance is now under increasing strain.
The risk is no longer limited to price fluctuations. It extends to the physical availability of energy and the security of the infrastructure that delivers it. Pipelines, shipping lanes, and centralized processing facilities represent critical points of vulnerability.
For importing nations, this creates a strategic challenge. Dependence on distant suppliers introduces exposure to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and regional conflicts. Even short-term disruptions can have outsized economic and social consequences.
This is where the energy transition takes on a new dimension.
Renewable energy is often framed primarily as a climate solution. Increasingly, it is being recognized as a security strategy.
Unlike fossil fuels, renewable resources are more widely distributed. Wind and solar can be developed in most regions, while other sources such as biomass and geothermal energy can further strengthen domestic supply. Hydropower, which accounts for roughly 15% of global electricity generation, complements this mix in regions with suitable geography and water resources.
The infrastructure is also more decentralized. A network of wind farms or solar installations is inherently more resilient than a single pipeline or terminal. Disrupting one asset has limited system-wide impact.
The European Union has begun to position this shift explicitly as a matter of strategic autonomy, with policies aimed at scaling up “made in Europe” energy production and securing critical supply chains for clean technologies.
The impact of fossil fuel volatility is already visible in consumer behavior.
Rising gasoline and diesel prices are driving renewed interest in electric vehicles, particularly in markets that had previously been slower to adopt. According to Bloomberg, the United Kingdom recently recorded its highest-ever monthly EV sales, with similar trends emerging in parts of Europe, Asia, and Africa.
Electricity markets are not immune to volatility. But they are increasingly decoupled from fossil fuel dynamics as renewable generation expands. This strengthens the case for electric vehicles, which benefit from significantly higher drivetrain efficiency than internal combustion engines.
Today, around 40% of global electricity comes from low-carbon sources, including renewables and nuclear.
As that share grows, the relative stability of electricity as an energy carrier becomes more attractive compared to oil-based fuels.
Electricity alone cannot meet all energy needs. Aviation, shipping, and heavy industry still depend on energy-dense fuels.
Here, new pathways are emerging. Renewable electricity can be used to produce hydrogen, which can serve as a fuel in its own right or be converted into ammonia and synthetic hydrocarbons.
These fuels offer a route to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify while maintaining greater control over supply chains.
However, their true climate impact depends on full life-cycle analysis. Producing hydrogen using coal-based electricity, then combining it with captured fossil-derived carbon dioxide to create liquid fuels, only to re-emit that carbon when burned, undermines any benefit.
When produced from renewable electricity and carbon dioxide from biomass or captured from the air, electrofuels could play a meaningful role in making even sectors such as aviation more sustainable.
Home grown fuels reduce the need to store and transport large volumes of fossil fuels across long distances. For countries with strong renewable resources, this opens the possibility of producing both energy and fuel domestically.
The current wave of geopolitical instability is accelerating changes that were already underway.
As Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned in an interview with The Guardian, there is little prospect of a return to the previous status quo. “The vase is broken, the damage is done. It will be very difficult to put the pieces back together,” he said, adding that the crisis will have lasting consequences for global energy markets for years to come.
Energy security is no longer defined solely by access to global markets. It is increasingly about control over domestic resources, infrastructure resilience, and the ability to withstand external shocks.
This reframes the energy transition for policymakers. It is not just about reducing emissions or meeting climate targets. It is about reducing vulnerability. At the same time, new industrial opportunities are created in clean energy, advanced fuels and supply chain development.
Of course, there are trade-offs. Renewable energy systems require land, materials, and careful management of environmental impacts. These challenges must be addressed to ensure a balanced and sustainable transition.
But the direction of travel is becoming clearer. The shift to renewable energy is no longer driven only by climate ambition, even if this should be a very strong driver in itself. It is being reinforced by a more immediate and pragmatic concern: the need for secure, reliable, and controllable energy systems in an increasingly uncertain world.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。