Iran oil industry concept, industrial illustration - growing graph on Iran flag background. 3D Illustration
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Electric vehicle afficionados are lauding the increase in sales because of the Iran war-induced increase in oil and natural gas prices, but this increased demand is likely to be temporary.
Forecasters are updating their predictions for the next couple of years but longer-range predictions remain more or less unchanged, suggesting that demand will get nowhere near the EV monopoly in new vehicle sales demanded by the European Union by 2035.
HSBC Global Investment Research has just updated its EV sales forecasts in a report responding to high oil prices.
HSBC said its prediction for EV market share in Europe this year increased to 23.0% from its previous 22.0%, 2027 to 28.5% (26.5%). 2030 and 2035 remain unchanged at 45.0% and 87.5%. In 2025, EV share was 18.1%. HSBC also published prominent forecaster Rho Motion’s predictions, less than its own, and in a different universe for 2035. For 2026 Rho Motion predicts 21%, for 2027 28.1% and 38.9% for 2030. For 2035, Rho Motion is almost 20 percentage points behind HSBC at 67.6%.
This big discrepancy is a reminder that the recent conventional wisdom accepted that as soon as 2030, most car and SUV production would be electric. Volvo, Ford Europe, VW’s Bentley and Mercedes said they only planned to make EVs by then and were forced to recant.
Other recent published forecasts include investment researcher Jefferies, which expects a European EV market share of 42% in 2030, 65.0% for 2035 or 8.7 million cars and SUVs. Jefferies said it had raised its 2030 forecast from an earlier 30%. Dataforce of Germany says about 46% in 2030, Counterpoint Research about 40%, and Schmidt Automotive Research 41.7% for Western Europe, including the big five markets of Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain.
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HSBC said in the report that EV sales enjoyed a strong start to 2026 in Europe, but an “energy crisis” spike is not yet apparent.
“We think more favorable economics for EVs on the back of higher pump prices will be supportive for adoption, but not the watershed that some suggest. Purchase decisions are multi-faceted. Energy shortages, however, could well drive a surge,” HSBC said.
“The longer the Middle East conflict prevails and the pace at which “normal” energy supply resumes will determine how much of a boost EV demand sees as a result. Higher consumer interest in EVs might mean perceptions see a more permanent uplift,” according to the report.
HSBC said fuel cost was never really a dominant factor in EV adoption.
“We see other aspects like higher sticker prices, charging infrastructure, and weaker residual values as hurdles. We are not convinced higher fuel prices will drive a spike in EV demand in of itself. That being said the longer the conflict lasts and the growing risk of disruption in supply/fuel shortages could well drive a surge in EV sales, both new and used,” the report said.
“In Europe, we raise our interim forecasts. This is our fourth consecutive upgrade to our European forecasts; full year 2025 and 2026 year-to-date growth in the major markets has been particularly strong. We leave our 2030 and 2035 EV forecasts unchanged, so there is still a risk of (manufacturers) incurring fines, which means the push towards EVs is likely to remain unchanged,” according to the report.
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Global carmakers have lost over $70 billion in write-offs after drastically scaling back overambitious EV production targets and consumer demand. Stellantis ($26.2 billion) took the largest hit, scrapping several fully electric models and reviving internal combustion engines. Ford ($19.5 billion) killed multiple EV programs, including a future electric van and its F-150 Lightning pickup trucks. Honda ($15.7 billion) expects a multibillion-dollar hit as it scraps planned EVs. General Motors ($6 billion), and Volkswagen ($6 billion) following Porsche’s cancellation of nearly production-ready EV sports cars.
Analysts said EV demand wilted because of high purchase costs, fast vehicle depreciation, and inadequate charging infrastructure. In the U.S. demand cratered following the ending of the $7,500 federal tax credit in the US. In Europe, many subsidies though have been restored, notably in Germany. Chinese manufacturers have rapidly expanded market share in Europe.
The transition to electrification has not been abandoned, but its timeline has dramatically slowed.
Auto Forecast Solutions of the U.S. said the non-appearance of the expected giant wave of EV demand caught manufacturers out.
“Electric vehicles are very likely to be the future of the industry, but that future is in the 2040s or later, and not 2027. In the meantime, manufacturers are trying to backfill product portfolios with new ICE models featuring hybrid drivetrains while looking for ways to pay back the investment in their fully developed new electric models,” Auto Forecast Solutions said.
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