The Mandalorian and Grogu

Disney

The Mandalorian and Grogu just had a truly embarrassing last few days. In only its second weekend, its earnings crashed by 69%, the highest ever for a Star Wars film, which led it to come in third place behind Backrooms and Obsession, two YouTuber-directed horror films with a combined $11 million budget.

It’s a sign that Star Wars is in a very, very rough place right now, and even more so when you consider the fact that the movie…not even bad. The Mandalorian and Grogu set this record at release, and now, after ten thousand plus more ratings have poured in, it still has it. The film has the highest Rotten Tomatoes audience score in Disney Star Wars history, above both the new trilogy, the underperforming Solo (which it is now being compared to), and even the fan-beloved Rogue One. It’s stayed firm at an 88%. Here’s how that compares to the entire slate of Star Wars movies, where it’s behind only the best OT films:

• The Empire Strikes Back – 97% audience score, 93% critic score
• A New Hope – 96% audience score, 94% critic score
• Return of the Jedi – 94% audience score, 83% critic score
• The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) – 88% audience score, 61% critic score
• Rogue One (Disney) – 87% audience score, 84% critic score
• The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) – 86% audience score, 51% critic score
• The Force Awakens (Disney) – 84% audience score, 93% critic score
• Solo (Disney) – 63% audience score, 69% critic score
• Revenge of the Sith – 66% audience score, 79% critic score
• The Phantom Menace – 59% audience score, 54% critic score
• Attack of the Clones – 56% audience score, 62% critic score
• The Last Jedi (Disney) – 41% audience score, 91% critic score

When this was calculated very early on, it did not seem like The Mandalorian and Grogu would retain that score, given that early viewers tend to rate things more highly, and it can sink over time. That would have taken just a 7% drop to get to fourth place, but it didn’t lose a single percent, even with thousands more reviews written.

The problem here is that what is the point of making even an audience-pleasing movie if it doesn’t earn the kind of money it needs to? The Mandalorian and Grogu has passed its lower-ish budget already, but with marketing and other costs added, it may barely break even, and it could come in lower than the worst-ever Solo, part of the reason Disney left Star Wars movies behind entirely a number of years.

Looking ahead, all the same risks are there. They have no more “this is the first trilogy in 20 years” cards to play that helped the new one earn $3+ billion. The next movie that we know is for sure coming out is Starfighter with Ryan Gosling. After that, allegedly, Dawn of the Jedi with a focus on the origin of the order. While it does make sense to move away from the Skywalker era eventually, the problem is getting people to show up and care about brand-new characters. A trial run of that was the first High Republic live-action series, The Acolyte, which bombed spectacularly.

The only thing we know is happening in live-action Disney Plus show land is the return of Ahsoka for season 2, three years after the first. Both The Mandalorian and Grogu and Ahsoka are direct results of Dave Filoni bringing large chunks of his Clone Wars/Rebels characters/storylines to life, but we saw what just happened with a feature-length Mando, and Ahsoka is not exactly one of the most beloved Disney Plus offerings. Now it’s the only one in live-action. The best thing happening in Disney Star Wars right now is Maul: Shadow Lord, which at least was created by Filoni as well, and is a win. But elsewhere? Good luck finding too many lights of hope at the moment.

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Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.