The Mandalorian and Grogu

Disney

Social media impressions for The Mandalorian and Grogu went up a few days ago, and now, just a few days ahead of its May 22 release, actual scored reviews have hit Rotten Tomatoes.

Like the social media reviews, the majority, so far, are positive. However, as it stands, The Mandalorian and Grogu has the second-worst Rotten Tomatoes score a Star Wars movie has gotten in the Disney Star Wars era at a barely fresh 65%. It’s the four worst, if we include the prequels and originals. Here’s the list:

• A New Hope - 94% critic score
• The Empire Strikes Back – 93% critic score
• The Force Awakens (Disney) – 93% critic score
• The Last Jedi (Disney) – 91% critic score
• Rogue One (Disney) – 84% critic score
• Return of the Jedi – 83% critic score
• Revenge of the Sith – 79% critic score
• Solo (Disney) – 69% critic score
• The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) – 65% critic score
• Attack of the Clones – 62% critic score
• The Phantom Menace – 54% critic score
• The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) – 51% critic score

While you may take issue with some of the placement here (let’s be real, no one thinks The Force Awakens is as good as The Empire Strikes Back), the trendline is arguably decently accurate, and you do not want to be in a place where you’re just above Attack of the Clones (I’d personally consider that the worst Star Wars movie).

Low scores do not necessarily tie into low box office. The big loser, Rise of Skywalker, made $1.07 billion. But that was the finale of the first mainline trilogy in 20 years, and The Mandalorian and Grogu is essentially a modification of the fourth season of a TV show that was already going downhill. If we want to compare scores with that, we have:

• Season 1 – 93%
• Season 2 – 93%
• Season 3 – 84%
• The Mandalorian and Grogu – 62%

Not great! But again, box office. That may be a challenge as well, as past tracking estimates put it at around $80-$100 million for its domestic opening, tied or not much above Solo’s, a movie that underperformed by Disney standards and led to the ceasing of standalone films like that, until now. Rogue One, another entry, made $155 million its opening weekend. There seems to be little chance The Mandalorian and Grogu will beat predictions by that much, nor get close to that film's $1.05 billion total. Though it will probably beat Solo’s $392 million in the end. Maybe.

None of this is good news for Disney, which does not want a “just okay” movie making “just okay” numbers for its first cinematic outing since Rise of Skywalker in 2019. Star Wars is about to undergo a transition as Dave Filoni fully takes over creative, but projects are already in motion, like Star Wars: Starfighter, which will be out in 2027. Past that, nothing seems set in stone; however, as has been the case for years on the film side of Disney Star Wars.

We’ll watch how it does and how fans view the movie. But it should be noted that the “good” season 3, as blessed by critics, resulted in a terrible 51% score from audiences, who are less amused with where the show has gone. We’ll see about the movie.

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Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.