View PDF HTML (experimental)

Abstract:Novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have enabled the generation of large ensembles of redistricting plans modeled as a graph partitioning problem. However, existing algorithms such as Reversible Recombination (RevReCom) and Metropolized Forest Recombination (MFR) have strong preferences for distributions related to the spanning tree measure. In this paper we introduce the Marked Edge Walk (MEW), a novel Markov chain proposal for sampling from the space of graph partitions. The walk operates on the space of spanning trees with marked edges, allowing for calculable transition probabilities for use in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Empirical results on real-world dual graphs show convergence under a broad class of target distributions less constrained by spanning tree counts, including policy-based distributions, such as competitiveness on New Hampshire that are independent of spanning trees, and compactness and partisan symmetry distributions on New Hampshire and Texas that, while related to spanning trees, can now be properly targeted with a smaller degree of spanning tree bias, which represents an advancement in flexible ensemble generation.

Submission history

From: Atticus McWhorter [view email]
[v1] Mon, 20 Oct 2025 16:28:42 UTC (15,228 KB)
[v2] Mon, 27 Oct 2025 16:20:43 UTC (15,229 KB)
[v3] Mon, 14 Sep 2026 17:27:22 UTC (1,962 KB)