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cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting Algorithms with Polynomially-Improved Approximation Factors for the $2 \rightarrow q$ Norm, and Applications A computational phase transition for learning-to-sample from Ising models Covering vertices by sequential stars Fermi-Dirac machines as quantizations of neurons A Comprehensive Evaluation of Vertex Elimination Algorithms for Algorithmic Differentiation A Tight Bound on Localization of Electrical Flows Optimal Dimension-Free Sampling for Regularized Classification Reducing the Randomness in Partition Oracles for Bounded Degree Minor-Free Graphs Beyond the Half-Approximation: Fair and Efficient Online Class Matching Efficient Uniform Sampling of Surjections via their Profiles Tractable Maximization of Budgeted Phylogenetic Diversity on Networks Utilizing Node Scanwidth Fairness in Aggregation: Optimal Top-$k$ and Improved Full Ranking Learning-Augmented Online Scheduling with Parsimonious Preemption Entropy Equivalence Testing Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor Polynomial-Time Robust Multiclass Linear Classification under Gaussian Marginals Efficient Banzhaf-Based Data Valuation for $k$-Nearest Neighbors Classification Block-Sphere Vector Quantization An Approximation Algorithm for Graph Label Selection Iterative Chow Filtering for Learning with Distribution Shift Complexity of Non-Log-Concave Sampling in Fisher Information Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform Min-Max Optimization Requires Exponentially Many Queries Fast and Compact Graph Cuts for the Boykov-Kolmogorov Algorithm A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling
Truthful Calibration Errors for Multi-Class Prediction
Yuxuan Lu, Yifan Wu, Jason Hartline, Lunjia Hu · 2025-10-08 · via cs.DS updates on arXiv.org

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024) introduced an additional requirement for such measures: truthfulness. A calibration measure is truthful if a predictor minimizes its expected measured error by reporting the true conditional label distribution. Many standard empirical calibration errors are non-truthful: a predictor may appear better calibrated by distorting its probabilities rather than reporting them truthfully. We study the practical role of truthfulness for calibration measurement in multiclass prediction. First, we introduce perfectly truthful calibration errors for multidimensional linear properties of the label distribution, generalizing the truthful calibration error for binary predictions in Hartline et al. (2025). This framework includes full multiclass calibration and classwise calibration. We also identify a truthful correction for confidence calibration. Second, we characterize the decision-theoretic implications of these truthful errors. For calibrated predictors, truthful calibration errors preserve the Blackwell dominance: a more informative calibrated predictor receives no larger expected error. Third, we show that this decision-theoretic interpretation explains and mitigates the well-observed ranking robustness problem of binned calibration errors. Empirically, non-truthful confidence-based errors can reverse model rankings when the number of bins changes, while our truthful errors give more stable rankings across binning choices.