Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Bryce Harper, Michael Busch and Yandy Diaz.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: Bryce Harper, Michael Busch and Yandy Diaz.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | +311 | Ryan Gusto has not surrendered a home run in limited work in 2026, yet he allowed 2.59 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in 2025. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper 97th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.409) and expected slugging (.553). |
| Michael Busch | +332 | This season, lefties are combining to slash .404/.457/.713 off Michael Lorenzen with a .497 wOBA. The wind will be blowing out at Wrigley tonight and Michael Busch should be able to take advantage. He’s red-hot since the start of May, with a 169 wRC+ over his past 181 plate appearances |
| Yandy Diaz | +394 | Eric Lauer’s allowed four home runs in his three starts with the Dodgers. He’s still bad. In fact, he’s allowing 2.56 opponent long balls per nine — the second-highest rate of any pitcher with at least 50 innings thrown. Diaz is hitting .319 with a .208 ISO off LHPs this season. He’s in a great spot. |
In-depth analysis below.
Look, if you want to back Kyle Schwarber (+215) in this market, I’m not going to be mad at you — just a little disappointed. The point is, we’re looking at left-handed bats in a matchup with Ryan Gusto of the Marlins. Gusto has yet to allow a home run in his nine innings of work with Miami this season, but a 10.3% opponent barrel rate and a 48.3% opponent hard hit rate suggest that won’t be the case for long. Then there’s the matter of 2025. Over a 101.2 inning sample, Gusto pitched to a robust 5.67 ERA and surrendered 17 long balls. Of those 17, 14 were hit by LHBs, translating into a ghastly 2.59 home runs per nine within the split. Lefties are Gusto’s kryptonite, and Bryce Harper has long been one of the sport’s best. Specific to 2026, Harper boasts 97th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.409) and expected slugging (.553). He’s dangerous.
Poor Michael Lorenzen. The veteran RHP probably looked at his schedule this week, saw the Cubs, and was at least able to take comfort in the fact that the game was not taking place at Coors Field. However, the wind will be blowing out of Wrigley tonight, so we’re looking at very similar vibes. Lorenzen has been terrible in 2026, pitching to a 7.54 ERA across 65.2 innings. He’s in possession of a second percentile opponent batting average (.302) and a 13th percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.0%), but his most damning statistics are his splits. Lefties have owned Lorenzen this season, combining to slash .404/.457/.713 off the 34-year-old with a .497 wOBA. Meanwhile, Busch has been red-hot since the beginning of May, hitting .301 with a .217 ISO and a 169 wRC+ over his past 181 plate appearances. The only knock on Busch? He might be too passive. That six-week span includes a 17.7% walk rate. Impressive in real-life, but less so for home run purposes.
While Eric Lauer’s surface numbers look better since joining the Dodgers, beneath the hood, this is the same pitcher that was struggling with Toronto for the first two months of the season. If anything, Lauer’s just been getting lucky with sequencing. The veteran lefty has allowed four home runs in his 16.1 innings with Los Angeles, and all four have been solo shots. For 2026 as a whole, that means Lauer is still giving up 2.56 opponent long balls per nine — the second-highest rate of any pitcher with at least 50 innings thrown. Diaz knows Lauer well from his time in the AL East, and the first baseman has long been considered a lefty killer. In 83 plate appearances within the split this season, Diaz is slashing .319/.386/.528 with a .208 ISO.
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