Sean Barnard breaks down the upcoming first-round NBA Playoffs series between the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers.
The long grind of the NBA regular season is over, and the playoffs have arrived. After the Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Phoenix Suns in their Play-In Tournament matchup, they will officially challenge the San Antonio Spurs in the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the Western Conference.
The Spurs are monster -2000 favorites to win the series, while the Trail Blazers hold +1000 odds of pulling off the outright upset on DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, there are plenty of different ways to get involved in the action that hold more appeal than just betting the series straight up. This article will take a look at a preview for each team and a pair of series bets that have caught my eye.
The San Antonio Spurs have officially made the leap into the true contender category and will look to carry their momentum of the regular season into the playoffs. San Antonio finished as the second seed in the Western Conference with a 62-20 overall record. The unit closed the season winning 19 of its final 22 games, but was unable to catch the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the West. On the season, the Spurs have gone 47-35 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 46 games.
Victor Wembanyama headlines the production as the most game-changing defensive talent in the league, with overall averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks. De’Aaron Fox provides some necessary experience to this youthful roster, averaging 18.6 points and 6.7 assists, while Stephon Castle helps set the tone on both sides of the ball and adds 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie also play key roles.
The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, adding 119.8 points per game. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which is the eighth-best rate in the league. Mitch Johnson’s squad also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the more positive surprises in the NBA this season, outperforming their expected preseason win total line of 32.5 by going 42-40 on the year. They defeated the Suns 114-110 to officially earn a playoff opportunity and will now challenge the Spurs. On the season, the Trail Blazers have gone 45-38 against the spread, and the game total is 43-40 to the over/under.
Deni Avdija leads the team with 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. He earned his first All-Star appearance this season and is playing himself into the face of the franchise. Shaedon Sharpe took an encouraging step in his development, adding 20.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday provide some necessary experience, with each player adding 16+ points per game. Donovan Clingan led the entire NBA with 4.5 rebounds per game and pitches in overall averages of 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson, Robert Williams III, and Matisse Thybulle also play notable roles.
The Trail Blazers rank 17th in the league in scoring by putting up 115.5 points per contest. They also rank 20th in offensive rating, 29th in field goal percentage, and 28th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.8 points per game against Portland, which ranks 16th in the league. Tiago Splitter’s squad also ranks 14th in defensive rating, 16th in opponent field goal percentage, and 15th in opponent three-point percentage.
This season should be looked at as a success for the Trail Blazers regardless of how this series goes. But there is a massive gap between these two teams that will be put fully on display. Portland’s offensive struggles are the biggest concern, as San Antonio has a legitimately elite defense with Victor Wembanyama at the helm. The Trail Blazers have done a nice job pushing the pace to get out in transition this season, but the Spurs are capable of matching this. It is tough to talk yourself into a basketball advantage in favor of this Trail Blazers team.
It is tough to beat a team four times in a row. However, there is a youthful personality of this Spurs team that shows up on an every-night basis. Upsets by inferior teams tend to be driven by the more talented team allowing a slip in intensity. Victor Wembanyama has made it clear with his words and play that he will not allow this to happen. San Antonio still plays with a chip on their shoulder on an every game basis and expect them to have the full intentions of making a statement by delivering a series sweep.
Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to lead the series in total points at -130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. While he will certainly make his impact felt, the Spurs do not live and die with his scoring output in the way the Trail Blazers do with Deni Avdija. Some of Wembanyama’s best games have been low-scoring performances in which he controls the game defensively. This is made possible because of the depth of San Antonio’s roster, where players like De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell are each capable of stepping up as a lead offensive options for stretches.
In contrast, if Deni Avdija is not scoring at a high rate, the Trail Blazers are likely in some trouble as a team. Avdija led the Trail Blazers with 1,598 total points on the season and 25.8 points per game. Toumani Camara is second in total points with 1,100, and Shaedon Sharpe is second in points per game at 20.8. Avdija also led the team with 41 points in the victory in the play-in game, with Jrue Holiday next with 21. The Spurs have a tough defense, but the Trail Blazers’ star is fearless in his attack to the basket and gets a steady diet of free throw attempts to add to his scoring total. It may not come in a winning effort, but expect Avdija to leave it all on the floor and be the clear leading source of offense for the Trail Blazers, beyond what any individual player on the Spurs’ roster.
Game 1 of the Knicks vs. Hawks series will take place on Sunday, April 19th at 9 p.m. ET.
Game 1 will be held at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, as the Spurs hold the home-court advantage in the series.
This is a Best-Of-Seven series between the Spurs and Trail Blazers. The first team to win four games will move on to the Western Conference semifinals.
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