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Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s full 15-game slate: Kody Clemens, Gavin Sheets and Evan Carter.
Let’s break them down.
With Byron Buxton (hip) currently nursing an injury, the Twins don’t really have an obvious candidate to hit a home run on Tuesday. Still, this matchup is just too good to ignore. Lance McCullers Jr. has simply been flat-out terrible since the beginning of April, pitching to an 8.07 ERA and a 5.95 FIP across seven starts and 32.1 innings. That’s also a span of time where opposing LHBs have combined to hit 2.21 home runs per nine with a massive .403 wOBA — a direct byproduct of McCullers’ fourth percentile opponent hard hit rate (50.5%) for the season as a whole. Kody Clemens wouldn’t be the clean-up hitter in many cities outside of Minnesota at the moment, but the 30-year-old does have some pop. Not only did Clements hit 19 long balls in a limited sample in 2025, but he’s in possession of an 88th percentile barrel rate in 2026 (15.2%). He’s the man to target on this underwhelming roster.
Remember the 2023 World Series? When it seemed like nothing could stop Evan Carter from being a superstar? Well, that hasn’t exactly gone to plan. Carter’s still just 23-years-old, but injuries and underperformance have stunted the outfielder’s once promising development. In 2026, Carter’s mustering a paltry .164 batting average in his 169 plate appearances. Not great. However, none of that matters at Coors Field. None of that matters when Tanner Gordon is expected to pitch in a bulk role for the Rockies on Tuesday. For his career, Gordon is conceding an eye-popping 2.55 home runs per nine to opposing left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Carter currently owns the league’s seventh-highest fly ball rate among qualified hitters (52.9%). His profile was made for the altitude. Look for him to exploit this very advantageous matchup.
Gavin Sheets is kind of carrying the Padres offense at the moment. The 30-year-old has always found a home on an MLB roster as a platoon bat, yet he’s never hit right-handed pitching this well. In his 131 plate appearances within the split in 2026, Sheets has managed all nine of his home runs along with a .316 ISO and a 159 wRC+. Overall, his .494 expected slugging rate ranks in the 87th percentile of the league. Not too shabby at all. On Tuesday, he’ll get the pleasure of facing Emmet Sheehan, who has struggled with his pitch mix against LHBs early on this season. While Sheehan’s fastball/slider combination is fantastic right-on-right, the young RHP has had his issues in opposite-hand matchups, as evidenced by surrendering 2.63 long balls per nine within the split. That might actually have graduated from “issue” to full-blown “red flag” at this point.
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