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Major League Baseball gets the long weekend off to a strong start on Friday, with a full-slate of all 30 teams. The Cubs host the Astros in a Wrigley matinee, while the rest of the action will take place under the lights. The weather doesn’t look to be especially homer-friendly in most places, with wind blowing in and soggy conditions in several spots. There are a few spots to attack, though, and good value if we can hunt down some home run props that pay off. Let’s start the weekend with a blast (or two)!
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Make sure to check out the Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, which continues through the rest of the month of May with plenty of bonus bets still up for grabs. In this post, we’ll look at three of my favorite home run props this Friday from Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso and Ketel Marte.
One way to avoid any weather impact is to target some of the games being played in domes. The Marlins welcome Vientos and the Mets to Marlins Park for the weekend, and on Friday, Eury Perez will start for Miami. Perez has a 5.33 ERA and has allowed 10 homers in 10 starts this season. Eight of those 10 homers have been hit by righties, who have a .403 wOBA, .349 ISO, and an 18.8% barrel rate in the split.
Vientos hit his sixth homer of the season last Thursday. He is 16-for-70 (.239) over his last 17 games with four of those six homers, a 55.2% hard-hit rate, and a 17.2% barrel rate.
Vientos has one plate appearance against Perez in his career, and he hit a home run against him. While the 26-year-old has had his ups and downs at first base, he’s providing the Mets with a solid right-handed power bat in the middle of their lineup right now, and in a favorable matchup against Perez, he brings great value at over +600.
Vientos’ predecessor at first base for the Mets, Pete Alonso, has nine homers so far this season for the Orioles, and he’ll be in a good matchup at home as Baltimore welcomes in the Tigers this weekend. Alonso has been on a nice roll in May, hitting .274 with a 20% barrel rate and five of those nine homers. He homered on Wednesday in the O’s series finale in Tampa Bay.
Seven of his nine homers have come against righties, and he’ll face another hittable righty at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday. Jack Flaherty gets the start for Detroit, and the veteran is 0-5 for the struggling Tigers, with a 5.77 ERA, 5.02 FIP, and six homers against him in 10 starts. He has allowed four homers in 19.0 road innings, and righties have 50% of the homers against him in 46% of the plate appearances. Alonso is 3-for-6 in his past matchups against Flaherty and does have a home run against him.
Marte and the Diamondbacks host the Rockies for a four-game set this weekend after visiting Denver for three games last weekend. Arizona took the first game on Thursday, improving to 26-23 on the year and 16-9 at home. They have a great matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano on Friday night, who has allowed nine homers in nine games this season, after giving up 33 homers in 30 games last season. Lefties hit 20 of those 33 homers last year and have six of the dingers he has allowed this year. Lefties have an 18.1% barrel rate, a .306 ISO, and an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph against the Rockies’ righty, and Marte will face him from the left side as a switch-hitter.
Marte has seven homers this season after hitting at least 25 dingers in each of the last three years. He has hit six of those seven homers off right-handed pitchers and hit two homers earlier this week in home games against the Giants. He had this memorable blast on Tuesday for his first career MLB walk-off:
Marte followed that up with another homer on Wednesday and has a 51.7% hard hit rate and 13.8% barrel rate in his last seven games, all while hitting leadoff. Marte has solid odds over +400, since he hasn’t been mashing dingers all season long, but his recent surge and this matchup make him a strong play on Friday.
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