San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

After the Spurs stole a thrilling Game 1 on the road, the Thunder bounced back and took care of business at home in Game 2. OKC was 7-0 off a loss in the 2025 postseason, and that trend continued after its first loss of the 2026 playoffs. Now the series shifts to San Antonio, and the trends also shift the Spurs’ way.

The Spurs took their only regular season loss to the Thunder back in the middle of January, and rebounded with a win in their next game. That’s a trend that has held strong since then, going not just 11-0 straight up following a loss, but also 11-0 ATS. That span captures 8-0 SU/ATS during the regular season, and 3-0 SU/ATS during this postseason. Those wins came by 12 points over the Blazers in Game 3 of the first round, and by 38 and 29 points in Games 2 and 5 of the second round against the Timberwolves.

San Antonio clearly matches up well with OKC, and has the respect of the market. Assuming the Spurs close as short favorites in Game 3, it will put an end to a historic run of the Thunder being priced as postseason favorites. OKC had previously been favored in 33 consecutive playoff games. The injury report is a little murky for this one, as Jalen Williams re-injured his hamstring in Game 2 after playing just seven minutes. I’m assuming he will be ruled out for this game. Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox are game-time decisions for the Spurs, but I believe one of them will be out there — most likely Fox, who has now had a week of rest for his ankle.

Fox’s potential return would be crucial for the Spurs, who struggled with turnovers in the first two games. Stephon Castle, while brilliant overall, turned the ball over a combined 20 times in the two games in OKC. I expect San Antonio to limit the turnovers in Game 3, and OKC’s role players to take a step back on the road. That should be enough for the Spurs to bounce-back and get yet another win off a loss, jumping out to a 2-1 series lead.

As great as OKC can be, it has struggled on the road in the playoffs. The Thunder are just 3-11 ATS away from home over the last two postseasons. After getting away with a lot of fouls in Game 2, I also expect the Spurs to get more calls in Game 3 to help propel them at home. Expect a big game from Victor Wembanyama if that’s the case.

NBA Pick: Spurs ML (-125)

My player props for this game are going to come down to the injury report. As I mentioned, on the Spurs side, I’m expecting Fox to play and Harper to be out. If that becomes reality, I’ll look to back Fox. His Points + Assists prop sits at 19.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, which he has cleared in 10-of-11 playoff games, and that’s with Harper playing. Keep an eye on the injury report, and fire on this one if it unfolds favorably for Fox.

NBA Pick: De’Aaron Fox OVER 19.5 Points + Assists (-110)

On the OKC side, it feels extremely unlikely Williams is able to go. He battled hamstring injuries that sidelined him throughout the season, including the first two rounds of the playoffs. That same injury is what took him out of Game 2 early, and he was unable to return. Assuming he remains on the bench, Wallace should see a nice boost. He had eight points and six rebounds in Game 1, playing 28 minutes with Williams in the mix. He followed it up with 12 points and four boards in 25 minutes in Game 2. Wallace’s defense will continue to earn him minutes in this series, particularly in Williams’ absence. I’ll back him to clear a low bar in Game 3.

NBA Pick: Cason Wallace OVER 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-117)