The last time the Toronto Raptors made the postseason, their journey ended quickly, as they fell in the first round of the 2021-22 playoffs. In that instance, it was the final appearance in a run of eight postseason appearances in nine years, and it spelled the effective end of the Raptors’ core. The following season, Toronto lost in the Play-In Tournament, let Fred VanVleet walk in the 2023 offseason, and traded Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby in February 2024.

Now, the Raptors are back in the postseason, and their journey again looks like it’ll end quickly, as they’re down 2-0 to the Cleveland Cavaliers heading back to Scotiabank Arena. It’s not over, of course, but neither game has been particularly competitive, with the Cavaliers winning both by double-digit points.

Monday’s Game 2 was effectively a must-win for Toronto, but tonight’s 8:10 p.m. ET Game 3 truly is: no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.

Both teams have fairly healthy rotations: Thomas Bryant (calf) is questionable for Cleveland, while Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) and Ja’Kobe Walter (illness) are questionable for the Raptors.

The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 221.5. Toronto is +130 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this critical Game 3 and offer a prediction.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors preview, prediction

Cleveland has a pretty high baseline in this series, given that its primary star is one of the greatest playoff performers in NBA history. Donovan Mitchell, who has the sixth-highest playoff scoring average of all time and has never missed the tournament in his nine-season NBA career, has dropped 30 points in each of the first two games despite only shooting (and missing) one free throw in Game 2. The Cavaliers have also gotten at least 20 points from James Harden in both games, and Evan Mobley contributed 25 points in Game 2. The fourth member of Cleveland’s Big Four, Jarrett Allen, has had a more muted series, but as long as Mitchell, Harden, and Mobley all play well, the Cavaliers should continue to cruise.

The Raptors haven’t played all that badly, either. Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett have both provided at least 20 points in each game, and Jamal Shead has filled in capably for the absent Quickley, contributing 17 points in Game 1 and three combined steals/blocks in Game 2. The issue for Toronto has been its other two starters; Brandon Ingram had a Game 2 to forget, finishing with just seven points on three-for-15 shooting, and Jakob Poeltl has been extremely ineffective in both games. It seems likely that Collin Murray-Boyles will start ahead of him in Game 3, given that he opened the second half alongside Barnes, Barrett, Shead, and Ingram.

Cavaliers at Raptors pick, best bet

It might be surprising given its performance in the regular season and its personnel (namely Mobley, the 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year), but Cleveland has struggled to protect the paint so far, allowing the third-highest percentage within five feet among the 16 playoff teams. That could be an issue because both teams get downhill at an elite rate, but the fact that the Cavaliers have won both games comfortably without having their typical advantage in the paint is a reason for optimism. Assuming some regression to the mean for both the Raptors’ finishing and Mobley’s rim protection, Cleveland should be in good position to win tonight.

The teams have split the rebounding battle, with the Cavaliers snagging more boards in Game 1 and Toronto controlling the glass in Game 2, but neither team has done a very good job taking advantage of its second-chance opportunities anyway. Cleveland has forced more turnovers in both games and averages 0.5 more points off of turnovers per game, though it has been far worse on fast-break opportunities, a hallmark of the Raptors’ style. Both teams have done an excellent job drawing fouls, though that’s probably more sustainable for the Cavaliers, who were both better at drawing contact (especially after they traded for Harden) and more disciplined defensively.

The question for Toronto remains shooting. While the Raptors were excellent in Game 1, canning 48.1% of their triples, they ranked 10th-to-last in three-point percentage during the regular season and shot just 26.9% from deep in Game 2. Meanwhile, Cleveland was even better in Game 1, shooting an even 50.0%, and even regression to 32.5% in Game 2 was enough for a win. The Cavaliers’ shooting should be somewhat sustainable, given that they’ve been among the best three-point shooting teams in basketball during the Mitchell era. However, Toronto is more due for shooting luck normalization; it has allowed fewer wide-open threes per game, and a 51.9% rate is too high for even Cleveland. The Raptors have also contested seven more threes per game than the Cavaliers have.

Home-court advantage isn’t a major factor, since Cleveland was just 0.3 points per 100 possessions worse on the road than at home during the regular season and Toronto was merely 3.3 points per 100 possessions better, so since the average margin in the first two games was 11.5 points, that would imply that the Cavaliers should win tonight’s game by eight points. The Raptors could cut into that margin somewhat with better three-point shooting luck, but Cleveland is due to benefit from an improved whistle and some defensive luck on the interior. It should win more comfortably than the spread suggests.

Best bet: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 Alternate Spread (+127)