In the late slate of tonight’s five-game WNBA matchups, the Washington Mystics will take on the Seattle Storm. This is the second of back-to-back games between these two teams. On Sunday, the Seattle Storm produced a 97-85 win. Both these teams are currently one game below .500 in the early stages of this season.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Mystics enter as a 3.5-point favorite with -162 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm hold +136 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 160.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mystics at Storm matchup.

Mystics at Storm Preview

The Washington Mystics enter with a 2-3 record on the season. Their pair of victories came over the Toronto Tempo and Indiana Fever in overtime, while they have fallen short against the New York Liberty, Dallas Wings and this Seattle Storm team. Washington is 3-2 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in three of the five games played.

Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, posting averages of 19.2 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. Kiki Iriafen adds 15.8 points and 11.0 rebounds, while Shakira Austin is the lone other player to average in double figures with 15.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Cotie McMahon, Georgia Amoore and Michaela Onyenwere also play key roles.

Washington is scoring 83.8 points per game, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. It also ranks 14th in offensive rating, 14th in three-point volume and last in three-point efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 90.8 points per game against the Mystics, which is the third-most points allowed in the league. Washington also ranks 11th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent three-point attempts allowed and dead last in opponent three-point percentage.

After finishing last season with the seventh-best record at 23-21, the Seattle Storm launched into a rebuild ahead of this season. Top scorers Nneka Ogwumike, Gabby Williams, Skylar Diggins, Erica Wheeler and Brittney Sykes all left in free agency, leaving Seattle without 82.2% of last year’s scoring production. The Storm are off to a 3-4 start to the season, with their three wins coming against the Connecticut Sun twice and the Mystics. Seattle is 4-3 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in four of the seven games.

Dominique Malonga, Taylor Thierry, Taina Mair and Ezi Magbegor each remain sidelined for tonight’s matchup. The absence of Malonga is notable, as she leads the team with 16.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Natisha Hiedeman adds 13.7 points and 4.1 assists, while Flau’jae Johnson, Zia Cooke, Jade Melbourne and Awa Fam each also average in double figures.

The Storm are scoring 81.7 points per game, which ranks 14th out of the 15 WNBA teams. Seattle also ranks 12th in offensive rating, 11th in field-goal percentage, 10th in three-point volume and fourth in three-point efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 81.7 points per game, which is the third-best rate in the league. The Storm also rank sixth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.

Mystics at Storm Pick, Best Bet

While it was quite a facelift this offseason, there are some reasons for optimism for this Storm team. This is especially the case in this matchup, with the three-point discrepancy notable between these two teams.

In the first matchup, the Storm produced a 97-85 win. Seattle stretched the lead to as large as 26, and it held control for 74% of the matchup. The Storm shot 13-for-28 from beyond the three-point line in the matchup, while the Mystics were held to 4-for-20 on their perimeter attempts.

Three-point shooting is more important than ever before in basketball, and this is a hurdle that will be difficult to overcome. Seattle ranks fourth in three-point percentage as a team, and fourth in opponent three-point percentage. In contrast, the Mystics rank 15th in three-point percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage. While not having Dominique Malonga is a factor for Seattle, it also forces the Storm to prioritize their perimeter looks.

Trading two points for three points is a losing battle, and expect the game to gradually be put out of reach because of this. There is certainly a case that there is more overall talent on this Mystics roster, but there is a level of cohesion with the Storm that is surprising, given the offseason turnover. Washington has struggled to score the ball at a regular rate this season, and expect the Storm to put up points at a pace the Mystics cannot match. Seattle already beat this team as an underdog in the previous game, and expect the same tonight as it defends home-court once again.

Best Bet: Seattle Storm Moneyline (+136)