Sean Barnard previews Friday’s WNBA matchup between the Atlanta Dream and the Portland Fire and provides his best pick.
Closing down tonight’s four-game WNBA slate, the Atlanta Dream will challenge the Portland Fire. This is the first matchup between these two teams this season, and they enter with a combined 9-5 record. Portland has had some encouraging flashes in its first season in the league, while Atlanta made some significant offseason changes to attempt to take a further step forward in the WNBA hierarchy.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Dream enter as 8.5-point favorites and hold -380 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire hold +300 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 163.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Dream at Fire matchup.
After a 30-14 record last season, their best since 2018, the Atlanta Dream made some major changes to their roster. The headlining move was the blockbuster deal to bring in Angel Reese, and the organization selected Madina Okot and Indya Nivar in the draft. The Dream are off to a 4-2 start to the year, with their pair of losses coming against the Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces. Atlanta has gone 3-3 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in four of the six games played.
Allisha Gray is off to a stellar start to the season, averaging 21.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. Rhyne Howard adds 17.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. Angel Reese has tallied 12.3 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, while Jordin Canada also averages in double figures with 11.8 points per game and a team-high 6.8 assists. Naz Hillman and Te-Hina Paopao also play key roles. Brionna Jones will remain sidelined tonight due to a right knee injury.
Through the first six games, Atlanta ranks 12th in scoring with 83.5 points per game and 12th in offensive rating. The Dream have been strong on the defensive end, ranking third in both points allowed and defensive rating.
In their first season back in the WNBA, the Portland Fire are off to a 5-3 start to the year. Their five wins have come against the Liberty twice, the Sun twice, and the Tempo. They have come up short against the Liberty, the Sky and the Fever. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. Portland has gone 4-4 against the spread, and the game total is 4-4 to the over/under.
Carla Leite headlines the production, posting averages of 16.3 points and 4.0 assists per game. Bridget Carlton adds 15.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.1 steals, but is listed as questionable for tonight with lower back soreness. Sarah Ashlee Barker and Teja Oblak are also considered questionable. Sug Sutton is the lone other player to average double figures with 11.3 points and a team-high 5.7 assists. This is a youthful group with nine players on the roster who have one or fewer seasons of experience.
Through their first eight games, the Fire are scoring 83.8 points per game, which ranks 11th in the WNBA. They also rank 10th in offensive rating and seventh in both field goal and three-point efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.1 points per game against Portland, which ranks sixth in the league. Portland also ranks 10th in defensive rating.
The Dream enter as 8.5-point favorites for this matchup. There have been encouraging signs from this Atlanta team, with Angel Reese making an impact on the glass and helping create second-chance points. Allisha Gray is also off to an excellent start, though while Rhyne Howard has not played her best basketball yet from an efficiency standpoint.
But there is an encouraging spark to this Portland Fire team, who compete at a high level on a night-by-night basis. They enter this matchup coming off three consecutive wins and have covered the spread in each victory, including two which came as outright underdogs. Their 81-74 win over the New York Liberty was an extremely impressive performance, and one that changed a bit how seriously the Fire should be taken.
The biggest concern is if Atlanta just dominates the boards at a level that Portland cannot match. The Dream are pulling in 39.2 rebounds per game, which leads the WNBA, while the Fire rank 14th in the league with 27.9 rebounds per game. This is the largest reason why Atlanta is favored, and the group boasts a more favorable defensive profile as well.
In contrast, Portland is built on speed and shooting over size, which is a matchup concern for the bigger Dream squad. The Fire score at a slightly higher rate, shoot better from the field, and also generate the most steals in the WNBA. Brionna Jones being sidelined for the Dream is more than a footnote, and this is a matchup that Atlanta must take seriously.
The pace of play will play a major role in this game’s outlook. If Atlanta is able to keep the pace slow and make this a half-court battle, there is a clear path for the Dream to produce a comfortable win. But the Fire have done a nice job speeding teams up this season, and getting out in transition. This will be a point of emphasis tonight, and Portland will look to ride the momentum of its three-game winning streak.
Expect the 8.5-point spread to be too significant for this matchup and for the Fire to be a live underdog. They have more games under their belt to help find their identity and have looked more impressive as the season has progressed. With the home crowd on their side and the momentum of their past few results in mind, expect Portland to keep this matchup competitive throughout. The 8.5-point spread is too significant based on what has been seen from these teams this year, so expect the Fire to have enough of a scoring punch to push the Dream to the limit tonight.
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