For a moment, it appeared the Colorado Avalanche might cakewalk their way to a Western Conference Final appearance after going up 2-0 over the Minnesota Wild to begin their current playoff series. As it turns out, there’s a reason the Wild were considered contenders heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs — a home win last time out means they’re suddenly back in the mix and the panic meter is steadily decreasing (for the moment) in the State of Hockey. Tonight, these teams battle once again in Game 4 of the second round at 8 p.m. ET.

Here’s a Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 prediction and pick for Monday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 prediction, preview

After being outscored 14-8 over the first two games of this series, the Wild finally looked like themselves in Game 3. They won that one 5-1 as the series shifted to Minnesota, chasing Colorado netminder Scott Wedgewood with three early goals before Mackenzie Blackwood entered in relief. With the series now 2-1 in the Avs’ favor, it seems the fun can finally begin as the Wild try to even things up tonight.

So, where do the numbers lie after that last matchup? The Avalanche are still favored in most metrics in both 5v5 play and on the power play, but things are a bit closer now. Colorado has the edge in 5v5 xGF at 6.43 to 6.05, also holding a two-shot lead in high-danger chances at even strength — though the Avs have struggled to finish on those attempts at a shooting percentage of just 3.85%. They’re also ahead on 5v4 power plays with a 3.69 xGF to the Wild’s 3.2; however, both teams have 10 high-danger chances and Minnesota did notably pick up a pair of goals on the man advantage last time out.

If Colorado could find the back of the net on those high-danger chances, perhaps the team would have a 3-0 lead in this series. Jesper Wallstedt came back as the starting netminder for the Wild last game though, stopping 35-of-36 shots he faced and playing like the version of himself we saw in round one. With a .913 SV% and 2.61 GAA this postseason, he’s largely played really well, but a .654 SV% against high-danger looks could mean we see positive regression from the Avalanche’s success rate on such shots.

What happens with the Avs’ own goaltender should prove intriguing, to say the least. Wedgewood had been excellent in most of the playoffs and still has a .911 SV% and 2.45 GAA, but he’s given up 11 goals in three games against the Wild so far. Clearly, he’s being pushed far more by this talented roster than he was in round one against the Los Angeles Kings, and letting three goals in on just 12 shots was a pretty terrible performance in Game 3. Blackwood stopped 12-of-13 pucks he faced in relief for a .923 SV%, so will Jared Bednar turn his way tonight? Per reporting from NHL.com, it appears so. He wasn’t the better of the team’s two goalies in the regular season though, amassing a .904 SV% and 2.51 GAA.

Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -148 road favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Wild come in with +124 odds on home ice. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 70% of straight bets on Colorado to win, 58% of wagers on the Avs to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 70% on the total’s over.

It’s pretty surprising to see these odds listed where they are. The Avalanche were -130 favorites in Game 3, which was the first one of the series in Minnesota. After looking vulnerable for the first time, taking a beating and swapping to a goalie who was worse in a large sample during the regular season, their odds on the Moneyline are now… shorter?

There’s a reason I’m only a writer and not an oddsmaker, so I’m just going to take the value where I can get it. While I don’t love that Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin both remain sidelined, I do love that Minnesota showed some fight last game after getting blown out in the first two matchups of the series. The Wild were clearly energized with the hometown crowd at their back while Wedgewood was rattled early. Tonight, Blackwood will have just as much pressure on him as he seeks to maintain his team’s advantage in the bigger picture despite not getting a postseason start yet. He was quite good last year against the Dallas Stars in what was the first playoff series of his career, but the Avs did ultimately lose that series and he doesn’t have much experience in environments like these. Yes, you could say the same for Wallstedt, but the latter has looked far better himself.

All of that is to say — I simply don’t trust Blackwood tonight and believe the Wild found some momentum to build on with their last win. I’m expecting them to follow it up with another one tonight at plus value.

Best bet: MIN Wild ML (+124)