Philadelphia returns to Dodger Stadium with October still close enough to sting. Los Angeles ended the Phillies’ 2025 season here, then spent this May looking every bit like a club prepared to do the same thing again. The Dodgers are 36-20 after winning five straight and 12 of 14, closing their Colorado sweep with Shohei Ohtani throwing six hitless innings and launching a leadoff home run. Philadelphia arrives with a strikingly different energy. The Phillies opened 9-19, turned the club over to Don Mattingly, then went 20-8 under their new manager with an 11-2 road record. They have won three straight after sweeping San Diego while allowing only three runs. A return to Los Angeles gives that recovery its sharpest examination yet: the team that removed Philadelphia from October now faces the most convincing version of the Phillies’ new identity. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction, preview

That identity begins with a rotation capable of making every night feel airless. Cristopher Sánchez just extended his franchise-record scoreless streak to 44 2/3 innings, then handed the ball to Zack Wheeler for Friday’s opener. Wheeler has been extraordinary since returning from thoracic outlet surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA across six starts while Philadelphia has won all six. He has worked 13 scoreless innings across his last two appearances, allowing six hits and two walks with 14 strikeouts. Statcast supports the dominance: opponents have produced a .222 wOBA, .284 xwOBA, .354 xSLG, 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 7.4% barrel rate against him. His four-seamer has held hitters to a .077 batting average and .149 wOBA, while his splitter has generated a 40.4% whiff rate. Los Angeles brings a formidable answer, though its right-handed depth has thinned with Teoscar Hernández and Kiké Hernández unavailable for this series.

Kyle Schwarber is the Phillies hitter most likely to break this game. The Philadelphia slugger leads the majors with 21 home runs, backed by a .411 wOBA, .389 xwOBA, 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 51.2% hard-hit rate and a thunderous 23.6% barrel rate. The left-on-left matchup against Justin Wrobleski creates no comfortable refuge for Los Angeles. Schwarber has punished southpaws for a .270/.379/.608 line with six home runs in 87 plate appearances, and Wrobleski lives almost entirely through the pitches Schwarber handles best. The Dodgers left-hander throws four-seamers and sliders on more than 80% of his offerings. Schwarber has slugged .649 against four-seamers with a 57.1% hard-hit rate, while his slider contact carries a .599 expected slugging percentage. Bryce Harper supplies a second premium threat in that same tunnel: a .759 xSLG against four-seamers and an extraordinary 1.025 xSLG against sliders. Wrobleski enters 6-2 with a 3.07 ERA, yet his .320 xwOBA allowed and 13.7% strikeout rate suggest a starter whose early escape act has begun to fray.

Los Angeles still owns the most intimidating offensive counterweight in the matchup. The Dodgers lead baseball with a .262 batting average, .346 on-base percentage and .440 slugging percentage, and their five-game winning streak has produced 40 runs. Ohtani has carried a 1.202 OPS across his past 11 games, along with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, 16.2% barrel rate and .408 xwOBA. Freddie Freeman has a .390 xwOBA and a long history of discomfort for Wheeler, batting .389 with a 1.088 OPS across 54 career at-bats in the matchup. Andy Pages has become the complication behind the superstars, reaching 13 home runs and an MLB-best 50 RBI with a .358 xwOBA and 47.3% hard-hit rate. Wheeler must avoid sinkers drifting into Ohtani’s damage zone and sweepers flattening for Pages. His current command gives Philadelphia an answer to that first wave, and the loss of two established right-handed bats narrows the Dodgers’ margin when an inning fails to develop.

Phillies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet

The later innings leave the Phillies with their most serious burden. Los Angeles has built a bullpen capable of protecting nearly any narrow advantage, carrying a 2.63 ERA through 171 1/3 innings and recently assembling a franchise-record 38-inning scoreless streak. Tanner Scott enters with a 1.19 ERA, Kyle Hurt with a 1.06 mark and Will Klein at 1.93. Philadelphia’s relief group has answered impressively during its recent climb, posting a 2.00 SIERA with a 28.9% strikeout-minus-walk rate across the past 20 days. Both clubs had Thursday free, leaving the leverage arms available for a tight finish. That makes the first six innings critical. Wheeler can keep the Dodgers from building early momentum, while Schwarber and Harper have the swing profiles to force Wrobleski out before Los Angeles can arrange the cleanest version of its late-game machine.

The Dodgers deserve every ounce of respect their current run has earned, yet Friday’s price asks Philadelphia to win a close game behind the best starting pitcher on the field. Wrobleski has allowed 14 runs across his past three starts after a charmed opening stretch, and the Phillies now bring two left-handed stars built to punish his four-seam and slider foundation. Wheeler has already carried Philadelphia through six straight victories in his starts, and the Mattingly-era Phillies have become comfortable turning slim margins into completed nights on the road. The cleanest failure mode is an early Ohtani-Freeman rally before Pages reaches Wheeler’s secondary pitches, allowing the Dodgers bullpen to protect a lead. Philadelphia’s ace, its left-handed power and the injuries thinning Los Angeles’ support layer still make the visitors the better side at this number. Best bet: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline -101.

Projected score: Phillies 4, Dodgers 3.

Best bet: Phillies (+100) at Dodgers

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