Arizona enters Friday with a cleaner pulse after splitting four games against Los Angeles. The D-backs closed that series with a 3-2 walk-off win. Corbin Carroll homered in the eighth, Geraldo Perdomo tied it late, and Ketel Marte ended it immediately. Washington arrives from the opposite direction after Miami swept three straight. The Nationals scored three, three, and one run in those losses. Max Meyer held them to one run and two hits across seven innings Wednesday. Arizona has the better emotional runway, and its offense gets a matchup that fits its best split. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Minnesota Twins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Diamondbacks vs. Twins prediction, preview

Prielipp gives Minnesota strikeout upside, but his profile has become easier to separate. He owns a 5.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts across 49.2 innings. His recent stretch has been rougher, with a 5.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 39 hits, 23 earned runs, and 15 walks across his last seven starts. The breaking balls can save him. His slider has held hitters to a .175 average, .270 slugging percentage, and .248 wOBA. His curveball has allowed a .194 average, .226 slugging percentage, and .244 wOBA. Arizona should make him win through those pitches.

The hittable lanes are where the Diamondbacks can push this game. Prielipp’s four-seamer has allowed a .302 average, .558 slugging percentage, and .429 wOBA. His changeup has allowed a .607 slugging percentage, and his sinker has allowed a .409 average. That gives Arizona a path through hard contact and traffic. Corbin Carroll brings 13 homers, nine steals, a .264 ISO, .540 slugging percentage, .387 wOBA, and 146 wRC+. Gabriel Moreno adds a .277/.359/.458 line and 127 wRC+. Geraldo Perdomo gives the top half a .355 OBP and 14.1% walk rate.

Arizona’s recent offensive showing gives the matchup some needed human texture. The Diamondbacks beat the Angels 8-1 behind Carroll’s grand slam, Moreno’s three-hit game, and production from Ketel Marte, Tommy Troy, and Jordan Lawlar. Marte adds 11 homers, a .184 ISO, and enough switch-hit damage to punish fastball counts. Lawlar’s smaller sample has brought on-base skill, athletic pressure, and bottom-order length. This lineup has been uneven for long stretches, but Prielipp’s fastball-changeup mistakes meet the right pocket of Arizona’s order.

Twins vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet

Minnesota’s heat keeps the side market dangerous. Trevor Larnach went 3-for-5 with a homer and three RBI in Thursday’s 9-3 win. Brooks Lee opened that finale with a three-run shot, and the Twins spent three days hammering Texas mistakes. Soroka is the reason I will not chase a full-game total first. He enters at 8-3 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 79 strikeouts, a 24.0% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate, 0.67 HR/9, 2.92 FIP, and 3.52 xFIP. His slurve, four-seamer, changeup, cutter, and sinker give Arizona multiple ways to change Minnesota’s timing.

The bullpen layer keeps the best angle on Arizona’s bats. Minnesota’s relief group has carried recent damage, with several arms showing rough seven-day snapshots and repeated usage. Arizona’s bullpen has looked steadier, which makes a D-backs scoring play cleaner than a margin bet. The moneyline is too expensive, the run line invites a Minnesota backdoor, and the full-game over asks Soroka to loosen. Prielipp’s fastball-changeup damage, Arizona’s top-half form, and Minnesota’s bullpen risk point to the same place.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-115). Playable to -120.

Projected final score: Diamondbacks 6, Twins 3.

Best bet: Diamondbacks TT o4.5 runs (-110) vs. Twins

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