The Pistons and Cavaliers conclude their second-round series with Game 7 in Detroit on Sunday. The winner will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals to face the Knicks. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is favored by 4.5 points for Game 7 and this contest carries a total of 205.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers preview

The home teams were undefeated at home through the first four games of this series and then, the Cavaliers upset the Pistons in Detroit in Game 5 with a 117-113 overtime win. Cleveland was in a prime position to advance as a 4.5-point home favorite for Game 6, but the Pistons had other plans and returned the favor, cruising to an easy 115-94 win in Cleveland to force Sunday’s Game 7.

From the start of the second quarter, the Pistons led and never gave up the lead. It was a masterclass by Detroit’s defense, holding the Cavaliers to 39% shooting from the field and 34.3% on three-pointers. The Pistons also dominated in the paint, outscoring Cleveland 48-26.

Cade Cunningham led Detroit with 21 points and eight assists, but his turnover issues continued, with the guard coughing up seven turnovers. Jalen Duren had one of his better games of the postseason, posting a 15-point and 11-rebound double-double, and Dannis Jenkins added 15 points, as he continued to start despite Duncan Robinson returning from a one-game absence due to a sore back. The sharpshooter was great off the bench, however, scoring 14 points, including 4-of-7 from deep. Last, but not least, after seeing big minutes off the bench in the Game 5 overtime loss, including every minute from the start of the fourth quarter, Paul Reed continued to receive an expanded role off the bench in Game 6 and delivered, posting 17 points and six rebounds in just 16 minutes.

While the Pistons came up short in Game 5, their coaching staff holding strong and going right back to Paul Reed in Game 6 was a smart move and the backup center’s increased playing time absolutely should continue in Game 7. During these playoffs, Reed has been terrific, with Detroit owning a 15.3 net rating per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which is the third best net rating for the team. Cunningham’s turnovers are a problem in the Pistons’ quest to win a title, but they have proven they can beat the Cavaliers even when Cunningham is having trouble in that department. If the guard is able to protect the ball better in Game 7, Detroit could flourish.

This Pistons group is young and tonight will be just the second Game 7 for most of these players, but they got their feet wet in the first round vs. the Magic and handled the moment very well, winning 116-94. Being at home is also a massive advantage, as Detroit is 36-11 at home this season and the home team is a ridiculous 117-41 in Game 7s in NBA history.

In the Game 6 loss for Cavaliers, James Harden led the way with 23 points, but like Cunningham, he had issues protecting the ball, turning it over eight times. Donovan Mitchell also was a big letdown, shooting 6-of-20 from the field for 18 points. Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen were solid in the front-court, scoring 18 and 13 points, respectively, and Sam Merrill finished with 10 points, but he was the only player outside of Cleveland’s starting five to reach double figures.

In order for the Cavaliers to win this Game 7, Harden needs to limit his turnovers and Mitchell simply can’t struggle as a scorer again. When the guard has finished with 20 points or less this postseason, Cleveland is 1-3 and two of these losses have been by over 20 points. Mitchell has scored over 30 points three times in this series vs. the Pistons, most notably the 43-point outburst in Game 4, so he is more than capable of shining in this matchup, but his home/away splits have been dramatic during these playoffs, which is a concern for Cleveland heading into this Game 7 in Detroit. Mitchell is averaging 28.4 PPG at home, compared to 22.3 on the road.

The Cavaliers did just win Game 5 in Detroit, but this is their only road win this postseason, as the team is 1-5 away from Cleveland. The Cavaliers are the more experienced group over the Pistons, though, as this will be James Harden and Donovan Mitchell’s eighth and fourth Game 7, respectively. However, Harden is just 4-3 in these series deciding contests, while Mitchell is 2-1. Both players will need to have strong and efficient showings tonight to win this Game 7, and will be very interesting to see how they respond in Detroit after the disastrous Game 6.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers pick, best bet

The Cavaliers had a golden opportunity to clinch this series at home in Game 6 and completely folded. Cleveland should put up a better fight tonight, but this group has had major issues on the road this postseason and the Pistons are simply the better team.

Detroit ranks fourth in net rating this postseason while Cleveland ranks seventh. In the regular season, the Pistons finished second in net rating while the Cavaliers finished ninth. Detroit should win this game on it’s home floor and the club is a strong bet to cover this 4.5-point spread.

Best Bet: Pistons -4.5 (-110)