Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.

Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate:

Let’s break them down.

Top MLB Home Run Props

Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+298)

This is a real unstoppable force meets an immoveable object situation.

Let’s start with Zack Littell, who after giving up four more home runs in his last start against the Braves, has now surrendered a league-high 47 long balls since the beginning of 2025. That’s five clear of the second-most and nine clear of third most. Basically, Littell is in his own stratosphere when it comes to serving up meatballs. Specific to 2026, Littell has especially struggles with left-handed opponents. In fact, the 63 he’s faced have combined for an .810 slugging percentage and a .501 wOBA. Of the 19 hits that the RHP has conceded to LHBs, nine have left the park. I like those odds.

Then there’s the Mets. Maybe the one team I have my doubts about being able to take advantage of a flaw this large. New York is last place in virtually every single offensive category in MLB, although the club only sits 28th in home runs (20). Congrats to Uncle Steve. Still, the re-addition of Juan Soto last week was helpful, as the $765 million man has managed a .399 expected wOBA in his 55 plate appearances this season. Left-handed bats don’t come much more dangerous than Soto — even if he’s wearing a Mets cap.

Jake Bauers 1+ Home Run (+375)

Merrill Kelly started the season on the IL for the Diamondbacks. Maybe he should have stayed there.

The veteran right-hander has looked terrible in his first two outings of 2026, giving up 10 earned runs and four long balls in just 9.2 innings of work. The sample size isn’t massive, but the underlying numbers are as blue as the Democratic National Convention. Kelly sports a first percentile xERA (13.64), a first percentile opponent barrel rate (25.7%) and first percentile opponent average exit velocity (93.8). In layman’s terms: The 37-year-old is not currently fooling anyone in the batter’s box.

As such, I feel as if I have to take a chance on a Brewers home run prop this evening, despite the fact that the team sits dead-last in big flies so far this season (19). Injuries to Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio have left this lineup without serious pop, though Jake Bauers is trying his best. Bauers has translated 95th percentile bat speed (76.2) into a 95th percentile hard hit rate (55.9%). Don’t you just love when the cause and effect line up that perfectly?