The Colorado Avalanche have been considered favorites to win the Stanley Cup for months. After winning eight of their first nine games in the postseason thus far, they showed up to the Western Conference Final and were immediately punched in the teeth by the Vegas Golden Knights. The latter made a real statement in Game 1 by stealing a win on the road, but tonight may be a tougher test as these teams run it back.

Here’s a Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 2 prediction and pick for Friday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 2 prediction, preview

We’ve got to admit, the opening matchup of this Western Conference Final was quite a shocker. That game, held in Colorado, saw a scoreless first period before the Golden Knights opened the festivities in the second. After an even-strength goal and then one on the power play, Vegas led 2-0 heading into the final frame before tacking on a third for good measure to entirely silence the crowd at Ball Arena. As some fans headed for the exits early, the home team did finally rally with a pair of goals to make it 3-2, with the latter coming in a 6-on-4 situation after pulling Scott Wedgewood from the net on the power play. Ultimately, the late push meant nothing as Vegas notched an empty-netter, ending things with a 4-2 final score. Whew.

There’s much to catch up on from this one, but here’s how some of the numbers shake out. The Avalanche tallied 38 shots to 28 for the Golden Knights, and while Vegas won the battle in hits and blocked shots, the visitors had a staggering 24 giveaways to just nine for Colorado. It’s pretty surprising that the matchup turned out the way it did given the disparity in some of those stats, but that’s just hockey for you. Ultimately, it came down to Carter Hart going 36-for-38 on saves even when facing high volume from the opposing attack.

One can certainly expect the Avalanche to pour on an offensive onslaught once again in Game 2, especially given the difference in the raw speed they boast as opposed to their opponent. We saw that the offense can overwhelm just about any team during the regular season, and after going 1-for-3 on the power play to improve to 25.9% on the man advantage in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, they’re an even better force than they were entering the postseason. Sometimes the better team just doesn’t win even if they do most things right.

If there’s anything to garner from all those figures, it’s that the Avalanche are still the better team. Look no further than their 3.67 xGF and 2.1 xGA in 5v5 play with a 16-to-7 edge in high-danger chances. On the 5v4 power play, their underlying metrics also outpaced the Golden Knights. That’s a sign that this is no time to panic, even given the poor result to start the series.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -166 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Golden Knights come in as a +140 underdog on the road. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 83% of straight bets on Colorado to win, 74% of wagers on the Avs to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 51% on the total’s over.

If Vegas is to steal another game on the road, puck protection has to become a bigger focus. The Knights’ 24 giveaways should have been a huge issue in Game 1 but they ultimately overcame the weakness by putting their bodies on the line with blocks and delivering timely strikes to play with a lead. It’s unlikely they cough up possession that many times again, but the formula otherwise should remain the same since it worked in the opener. Hart will have to be at his best once again as well, but he’s unpredictable at times and will certainly face a deluge of attempts here.

If nothing else, this feels like a matchup that Colorado should truly bounce back in. Game 1 was something of an aberration based on the loss coming even despite outproducing Vegas in most areas, especially in high-danger chances and other underlying metrics. The Avalanche are a far better team, and while the absence of defenseman Cale Makar really hurts the top pairing, they have the depth to weather his injury and create offense regardless. They should bounce back on Friday evening, so I like a regulation victory in front of the home crowd.

Best bet: COL Avalanche 60 min line (-110)