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The second leg of the Silver Boot Series continues in Arlington’s Globe Life Field tonight. The Houston Astros no-hit the Texas Rangers in a 9-0 win to start things off on Monday night before the script flipped with a 10-7 win for the home team last night. On Wednesday at 8:05 p.m., these teams play the third game of this four-game set.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Rangers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Astros are still near the bottom of the AL West at 24-32, but they’re just two games back of the Rangers for third and are 6-4 over their last 10 contests. They’re still a quality offense with 4.45 runs per game and the fifth-best OPS at .733. That’s done on a slash line of .246/.322/.411 and a .165 ISO, also hitting the fifth-most homers with 72. Between all those numbers and a respectable 0.42 BB/K ratio, this should be a winning team by all means. The pitching staff’s ERA of 5.18 still ranks second-to-last while a 1.48 WHIP ties for the worst in baseball thanks to a 12.5% BB%. However, the numbers somewhat normalized over the month of May with a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP which are both around the lower end of average. The bullpen alone has a 3.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this month, though a 7.9 K-BB% is fourth worst.
For Houston, RHP Mike Burrows takes the mound amidst what’s been a very rough campaign. Through 10 starts, he’s 2-6 with a 5.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 56.1 IP. While he has experienced some very poor luck, his play also hasn’t been great with a 4.17 xERA and .250 xBA. He also forces relatively few ground balls.
Things simply aren’t much better for the Rangers this season. Texas is 25-29 and can’t seem to get back to the .500 mark, going 4-6 over its last 10. The one plus is that in an AL West without a team with a winning record, the Rangers are still just 1.5 games shy of first. Their offense produces only 3.91 runs per game and falls all the way to 23rd in OPS at .688, slashing .232/.314/.374. Globe Life is certainly not a hitter-friendly ballpark, but their ISO of .142 is also on the lower end and they’ve knocked 52 homers in total. Now, an 0.42 BB/K ratio does provide some encouragement since the Rangers have gotten their K% down to 22.9% after it was elevated in the early season. As for pitching production, the team has an overall ERA of 3.75 with a 1.21 WHIP and a 14.0% K-BB%. Narrowing the numbers down to the bullpen alone shows just how good these relievers are at limiting scoring, too, bringing a 3.14 ERA that ranks fourth with a 1.21 WHIP and 10.4% K-BB%.
Star RHP Jacob deGrom comes to the mound for Texas with a 3-4 record in 10 starts. Over his last two outings, his ERA has spiked by a full run to 3.86, though his WHIP remains great at 1.02 with 64 strikeouts in 53.2 IP. His fastball velocity continues to hum and he holds 90th-percentile grades or better in chase, whiff, and strikeout rate.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rangers as -144 Moneyline favorites at home tonight. The Astros come in at +119 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at only seven combined runs between these sides.
The Rangers’ bats aren’t all that great, but they did explode for 10 runs on nine hits last night. The Astros are far from unhittable — especially with Burrows out there allowing an AL-worst 12 homers and 36 earned runs in front of a bullpen that has its fair share of issues. The duality of this sport means that sometimes wild things happen, like the combined no-no in the opening game of this series. Such an outcome is unlikely tonight though, so watch for plenty of offense from Texas. While facing down deGrom is a scarier proposition for Houston, Jeremy Pena did return to the lineup nine days ago and the team had a blast last time they faced him on May 16 with four homers in six innings. deGrom now has eight homers allowed in 22.1 IP this month with a 6.45 ERA over this span. Other injuries be damned, the Astros have what it takes to score a couple runs off him and help this total go over.
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