Game 4 of this second-round series between the Thunder and Lakers will be played in Los Angeles on Monday. The Thunder lead this series 3-0 and can advance with a win. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 11.5 points and the game carries a total of 214.5 points.

Let’s dive into my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop for Monday’s contest.

Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U 28.5 Points (-102)

By his standards, Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled as a scorer in this series vs. the Lakers. In the first three games, the guard has finished with 18, 22 and 23 points while shooting 45% from the field. In fact, Gilgeous-Alexander has stayed under 28.5 points in 5-of-6 matchups vs. Los Angeles this season.

The Lakers playing at a very slow pace hasn’t been ideal for Gilgeous-Alexander. Los Angeles ranks dead last in pace among the remaining playoff teams — and his usage has actually been slightly lower than usual despite Jalen Williams (hamstring) being sidelined.

Gilgeous-Alexander is handling a 30.8% usage rate in this best-of-seven, compared to the 32.3% rate he garnered in the regular season. Make no mistake, Gilgeous-Alexander’s role is still elite, but it has been Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell who have seen the biggest increases to their workloads with Williams out instead of Gilgeous-Alexander.

As we have seen in the first three games of this series, the Thunder don’t need Gilgeous-Alexander to go off to beat the Lakers. Backing him for under 28.5 points tonight is the right move.