Last summer, the Las Vegas Aces extended their dynasty, sweeping the Phoenix Mercury in the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals, their third title in four seasons. Their 2026 campaign is off to a pretty solid start, as they’re 2-1 so far, including back-to-back blowout victories over the Los Angeles Sparks and the Connecticut Sun.

Connecticut, playing its final season at the Mohegan Sun Arena before it relocates to become the Houston Comets next spring, will have a chance to exact revenge on the Aces tonight when their game tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Las Vegas is a 14.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1350 Moneyline), with the total set at 171.5 points. The Sun are +800 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.

Aces at Sun prediction, pick

The teams hardly could’ve had more disparate experiences last season, and after a relatively quiet offseason, there’s no reason to expect much of a difference this season. The Aces won each of their final 16 games of the regular season and dropped just two games in the playoffs en route to their title, while Connecticut, despite a relatively competitive second half of the season, finished just 11-33. So far, it’s been more of the same for the young Sun, who are 0-3 but have plenty of intriguing prospects, with all but two members of their roster born in 2000 or later. Besides second-year center Aneesah Morrow, who’s averaging a double-double, few of Connecticut’s players have impressed so far, while Las Vegas has seen solid contributions from its core four — A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd — as well as from summer arrival Chennedy Carter.

Just as they did last season, the Aces thrive on their defense; last season, Las Vegas allowed the second-fewest shots at the rim while forcing the most non-restricted paint tries, and this season, it’s been more of the same. That makes the Aces a bad matchup for the Sun, who have made barely more than half of their shots in the restricted area and fewer than one-third of their floaters. Connecticut also has the worst offensive rating and the third-worst defensive rating in basketball, the latter of which could be exacerbated against Las Vegas, the best two-point shooting team in basketball. Two of the 13 players who have attempted at least 10 restricted-area shots and shot at least 70% (Wilson and Carter) play for the Aces; one of the two players who has attempted at least 10 restricted-area shots and made fewer than 50% (Morrow) plays for the Sun.

Las Vegas has been dominant in transition as well. The Aces rank fourth in rebound percentage and Connecticut just 10th, and they won the rebounding battle, 46-29, when the teams faced off on Wednesday night. Additionally, while both teams have been relatively sloppy with the ball so far this season, Las Vegas has been much better at racking up steals and making the most of them, ranking fourth in steals and fifth in points off of turnovers. The Sun also haven’t done a good job getting back after their mistakes; only the Los Angeles Sparks have allowed more points after giveaways, and no team has given up more fast-break points. Connecticut has also been one of the league’s most foul-prone teams, but fortunately for occasionally indisciplined veteran Brittney Griner, the Aces have been the league’s worst at getting to the charity stripe.

Against a team so dominant in the paint, it would behoove the Sun to try and win from the perimeter, but so far, they’ve attempted the fourth-fewest three-pointers per game and canned them at lower than a 30% rate. In fact, no Connecticut player except for reserve Hailey Van Lith has managed to make more than 35.7% of her threes this season, and Saniya Rivers and Charlisse Leger-Walker are both zero-for-four. It’s not like this is new, either; the Sun also finished dead last in three-point percentage in 2025. Meanwhile, although Las Vegas is also shooting less than 30% from deep, it converted at the third-highest rate (35.5%) last season. Loyd, who shot 38.2% from deep last season, and Young (37.7% for her career) are prime candidates to bounce back, whereas none of the struggling Connecticut players has ever shown much of a penchant for efficiency.

It’s rare to pick a team to cover a 15-point spread, but it’s also rare for a team to be better than its opponent in just about every single phase of the game. That’s the case here, and the Aces didn’t even play all that well in their 29-point win on Wednesday. If Wilson has taught me anything throughout her GOAT-level career, it’s never to doubt anything she can do.

Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -14.5 (-118)