Mayor Daniel Lurie may be setting the stage for a once-in-a-generation showdown with San Francisco’s public-sector labor unions. Faced with a $643 million deficit and the threat of hundreds of millions more in federal cuts, Lurie is slashing city jobs and squeezing public services — moves that are fueling anger among the unions he’ll soon face across the bargaining table.

The timing couldn’t be more fraught. 

Next year, for the first time since 1976 (opens in new tab), San Francisco’s public-sector workers will have the legal right to strike, after a recent decision (opens in new tab) by the California Public Employment Relations Board struck down the city’s ability to fire picketing workers. The last time a mayor pushed them this far, 5,000 city workers walked off the job, the streets filled with trash, the buses stopped running, and the city shook.

Last month, Lurie sent pink slips to 127 city staffers. His draft budget is due in June, and hundreds more positions are threatened.

While the mayor’s budget must be approved by the Board of Supervisors, a Lurie-friendly, moderate Democrat majority is poised to approve whatever cuts he proposes.

The only person who can stop Lurie’s budget is Lurie himself. 

And he may have reason to pull his punches.

Kristin Hardy, regional vice president of Service Employees International Union 1021 — which represents 16,000 San Francisco employees, nearly half of all city workers — said Lurie’s proposed layoffs will ensure workers are enraged by the time they meet him at the bargaining table in 2027. 

If that leads workers to strike, she said, “we can shut down the whole city.” 

“I really don’t think that the mayor wants this,” she added, but “that’s what it looks like it’s going toward.”

SEIU 1021’s members hail from nearly all of San Francisco’s 50-odd departments, guaranteeing that a strike would kneecap services San Franciscans rely on every day, from permitting to public health. 

Bianca Polovina, president of IFPTE Local 21, which represents 6,400 city employees, told The Standard that city officials are disregarding alternative solutions to layoffs, including tapping reserves in the short term, before relying on the Overpaid CEO Tax, which will be on the ballot in June and, if passed, may raise as much as $300 million (opens in new tab) annually for the city’s general fund.

“Our membership is alarmed at the impacts these layoffs are already having on public services. Shuttered clinics, reduced violence prevention programs, and community ambassadors pulled off the streets impact every San Franciscan,” she said. “It’s hard to imagine what’s in store if more service cuts are coming.”

One thing is sure: Whatever action unions take next year depends on what action Lurie takes this year. “Our members will have the right to strike,” Polovina said. “That decision will be theirs to make.”

Lurie hasn’t enjoyed strong relationships with public-sector unions, apparently by design. 

Bankrolling his own election to the tune of $9.5 million (opens in new tab) allowed Lurie to leapfrog the usual bridge-building between politicians and labor unions, traditionally hardened through years of campaigning and governing. Without those relationships to manage, Lurie’s administration has leaned into its argument that creating a friendly environment for downtown’s economic recovery will help refill city coffers.

Sharky Laguana, a former small-business commissioner and CEO of the passenger van rental company Bandago (opens in new tab), said Lurie’s policies are succeeding, including streamlining permits through his PermitSF program and creating joy with the success of the street festival, Downtown First Thursdays (opens in new tab).

“If we want to maintain the level of government we currently have, we’re going to have to find a way to raise tax revenue,” Laguana said. “The only way to do that is to convince people to do business here.”

Yet, as Hardy tells it, some business-friendly policies helped build the wall between Lurie and labor. The mayor is against labor’s local Overpaid CEO Tax and the California Billionaire Tax, which are designed to shore up budget shortfalls. His proposed charter reform would weaken citizens’ ability to place initiatives on the ballot, a frequent tool for organized labor to spar with businesses over taxes. There are also ongoing, delicate negotiations over the future of a years-old San Francisco business fee to support workers’ healthcare.

Lurie’s spokesperson, Charles Lutvak, said the mayor has taken a “collaborative” approach with labor.

“We’re putting together a responsible budget that will protect the core services San Franciscans rely on, while managing spending long term to lay the groundwork for a broad and durable recovery,” Lutvak said. “That collaborative approach will continue to guide our work as we finalize the budget and deliver the high-quality services San Franciscans deserve.”

But Mike Casey, president of the San Francisco Labor Council, which represents most unions in the city, said Lurie has had labor on the back foot since his first day in office.

“We spend more time defending and holding onto what we fought for and won decades ago than advancing and moving forward things our members and working people need now,” he said. “If they want to keep stripping away what we’ve got, all the services, eliminate jobs, OK. But it ain’t gonna be people just sitting back and taking it.”

That already frayed relationship may have further unraveled last week after Lurie codified 14% pay raises for police and firefighters, which will cost the city $100 million (opens in new tab) over the next two years. Local think tank SPUR issued a report this year warning that doing so would give other labor unions the ability to argue for raises of their own.

Ed Harrington, a former San Francisco city controller, said the SPUR report was prescient.

“When you go ahead and you give the police and fire big raises, of course, to us, some are going to say, ‘What about us?’” he said.

Harrington said the situation mirrors the one that led to the city’s general strike in 1976. He hopes history doesn’t repeat itself.

That year, more than 5,000 striking city workers shook San Francisco hard enough to register on the Richter scale: Street cleaning was halted, the main library and zoo were closed, and Muni buses lay dormant in their depots. Picket lines hit water pumping stations and the San Francisco Airport, according to an edition of the San Francisco Examiner from that year. 

Trash amassed in piles at San Francisco General Hospital, and a neglected Civic Center pool overflowed. 

If strikes rock San Francisco, it may endanger Lurie’s efforts to rebound the economy, according to Supervisor Myrna Melgar, a member of the board’s progressive Democrat wing who does not support the layoffs of city workers. 

“One thing that makes businesses nervous about investing in the city is unrest, so I really hope we don’t get there,” she said. “I hope that we take the path of labor peace.”