惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
雷峰网
雷峰网
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
博客园 - 司徒正美
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
博客园 - 【当耐特】
量子位
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
博客园 - Franky
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
U
Unit 42
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
The Cloudflare Blog
J
Java Code Geeks
V
Visual Studio Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
V
V2EX

cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Memory-Guided Trust-Region Bayesian Optimization (MG-TuRBO) for High Dimensions EngageTriBoost: Predictive Modeling of User Engagement in Digital Mental Health Intervention Using Explainable Machine Learning Reservoir observer enhanced with residual calibration and attention mechanism Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay Wireless Communication Enhanced Value Decomposition for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Adversarial Sensor Errors for Safe and Robust Wind Turbine Fleet Control IKKA: Inversion Classification via Critical Anomalies for Robust Visual Servoing Adaptive Simulation Experiment for LLM Policy Optimization EvoLen: Evolution-Guided Tokenization for DNA Language Model Smartwatch-Based Sitting Time Estimation in Real-World Office Settings Structural Evaluation Metrics for SVG Generation via Leave-One-Out Analysis Loom: A Scalable Analytical Neural Computer Architecture Spectral Geometry of LoRA Adapters Encodes Training Objective and Predicts Harmful Compliance Finite-Sample Analysis of Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis:Sample Complexity and Identifiability Bounds How does Chain of Thought decompose complex tasks? Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models Adaptive Candidate Point Thompson Sampling for High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization Using Synthetic Data for Machine Learning-based Childhood Vaccination Prediction in Narok, Kenya Delve into the Applicability of Advanced Optimizers for Multi-Task Learning Bridging SFT and RL: Dynamic Policy Optimization for Robust Reasoning Multi-Agent Decision-Focused Learning via Value-Aware Sequential Communication Predictive Entropy Links Calibration and Paraphrase Sensitivity in Medical Vision-Language Models Efficient Hierarchical Implicit Flow Q-learning for Offline Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning Modality-Aware Zero-Shot Pruning and Sparse Attention for Efficient Multimodal Edge Inference The nextAI Solution to the NeurIPS 2023 LLM Efficiency Challenge Feature-Label Modal Alignment for Robust Partial Multi-Label Learning Integrated electro-optic attention nonlinearities for transformers Toward World Models for Epidemiology Tracing the Chain: Deep Learning for Stepping-Stone Intrusion Detection Batch Distillation Data for Developing Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Methods
Flow-based Conformal Prediction for Multi-dimensional Tim...
Junghwan Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie · 2025-02-09 · via cs.LG updates on arXiv.org

Time series prediction underpins a broad range of downstream tasks across many scientific domains. Recent advances and increasing adoption of black-box machine learning models for time series prediction highlight the critical need for uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction has gained attention as a reliable uncertainty quantification method, conformal prediction for time series faces two key challenges: (1) \textbf{leveraging correlations in observations and non-conformity scores to overcome the exchangeability assumption}, and (2) \textbf{constructing prediction sets for multi-dimensional outcomes}. To address these challenges, we propose a novel conformal prediction method for time series using flow with classifier-free guidance. We provide coverage guarantees by establishing exact non-asymptotic marginal coverage and a finite-sample bound on conditional coverage for the proposed method. Evaluations on real-world time series datasets demonstrate that our method constructs significantly smaller prediction sets than existing conformal prediction methods, maintaining target coverage.