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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models
Temporal Dropout Risk in Learning Analytics: A Harmonized...
Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory Longo · 2026-04-10 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration. This study introduces a survival-oriented benchmark for temporal dropout risk modelling using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD). Two harmonized arms are compared: a dynamic weekly arm, with models in person-period representation, and a comparable continuous-time arm, with an expanded roster of families -- tree-based survival, parametric, and neural models. The evaluation protocol integrates four analytical layers: predictive performance, ablation, explainability, and calibration. Results are reported within each arm separately, as a single cross-arm ranking is not methodologically warranted. Within the comparable arm, Random Survival Forest leads in discrimination and horizon-specific Brier scores; within the dynamic arm, Poisson Piecewise-Exponential leads narrowly on integrated Brier score within a tight five-family cluster. No-refit bootstrap sampling variability qualifies these positions as directional signals rather than absolute superiority. Ablation and explainability analyses converged, across all families, on a shared finding: the dominant predictive signal was not primarily demographic or structural, but temporal and behavioral. Calibration corroborated this pattern in the better-discriminating models, with the exception of XGBoost AFT, which exhibited systematic bias. These results support the value of a harmonized, multi-dimensional benchmark in Learning Analytics and situate dropout risk as a temporal-behavioral process rather than a function of static background attributes.