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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Reliability and Effectiveness of Autonomous AI Agents in ...
Carol Xuan Long, David Simchi-Levi, Feng Zhu, Huangyuan Su, Andr · 2026-05-16 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

This paper studies autonomous generative AI agents in multi-echelon supply chains using the MIT Beer Game. We identify four inference-time levers that shape performance: model selection, policies and guardrails, centralized data sharing, and prompt engineering. Model capability is the dominant factor: an out-of-the-box reasoning model exceeds human-level performance, and optimized reasoning models reduce costs by up to 67% relative to human teams. However, strong average performance masks substantial reliability risks. We introduce agent bullwhip: the amplification of run-to-run decision instability in autonomous multi-echelon systems. A central component is decision bullwhip, the portion of order variability generated by stochastic agent decisions rather than by changes in customer demand. We show that decision instability can amplify both across facilities at a fixed point in time and within the same facility over time, even when the demand path is held fixed. Repeated sampling, a natural test-time remedy, fails to meaningfully reduce this instability, suggesting that reliability requires changing the underlying decision policy rather than merely averaging over model outputs. To address this limitation, we propose a Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)-based reinforcement-learning post-training framework that trains a shared base LLM using system-level supply-chain rewards. Post-training substantially reduces tail events, curtails agent bullwhip, and improves the reliability of autonomous supply-chain agents.