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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Deep Time-Series Models Meet Volatility: Multi-Horizon El...
Mohammed Osman Gani, Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang, Sara Khalifa · 2026-02-01 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its ability to achieve high forecasting accuracy. Recently, state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep time-series models have demonstrated promising performance across general forecasting tasks. Yet, their effectiveness in highly volatile electricity markets remains underexplored. Moreover, existing EPF studies rarely assess how model accuracy varies across intraday periods, leaving model sensitivity to market conditions unexplored. To address these gaps, this paper proposes an EPF framework that systematically evaluates SOTA deep time-series models using a direct multi-horizon forecasting approach across day-ahead and two-day-ahead settings. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across all five regions of the Australian National Electricity Market using contemporary, high-volatility data. The results reveal a clear gap between time-series benchmark expectations and observed performance under real-world price volatility: recent deep time-series models often fail to surpass standard DL baselines. All models experience substantial degradation under extreme and negative prices, yet DL baselines often remain competitive. Intraday performance analysis further reveals that all evaluated models are consistently vulnerable to prevailing market conditions, where absolute errors peak during evening ramps, relative errors escalate during midday negative-price periods, and directional accuracy deteriorates sharply during abrupt shifts in price direction. These findings emphasise the need for volatility-aware modelling strategies and richer feature representations to advance EPF.