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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Large Language Models as Nondeterministic Causal Models
Sander Beckers · 2025-09-26 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Recent work by Chatzi et al. and Ravfogel et al. has developed, for the first time, a method for generating counterfactuals of probabilistic Large Language Models. Such counterfactuals tell us what would - or might - have been the output of an LLM if some factual prompt ${\bf x}$ had been ${\bf x}^*$ instead. The ability to generate such counterfactuals is an important necessary step towards explaining, evaluating, and eventually improving, the behavior of LLMs. I argue, however, that the existing method rests on an ambiguous interpretation of LLMs: it does not interpret LLMs literally, for the method involves the assumption that one can change the implementation of an LLM's sampling process without changing the LLM itself, nor does it interpret LLMs as intended, for the method involves explicitly representing a nondeterministic LLM as a deterministic causal model. I here present a much simpler method for generating counterfactuals that is based on an LLM's intended interpretation by representing it as a nondeterministic causal model instead. The advantage of my simpler method is that it is directly applicable to any black-box LLM without modification, as it is agnostic to any implementation details. The advantage of the existing method, on the other hand, is that it directly implements the generation of a specific type of counterfactuals that is useful for certain purposes, but not for others. I clarify how both methods relate by offering a theoretical foundation for reasoning about counterfactuals in LLMs based on their intended semantics, thereby laying the groundwork for novel application-specific methods for generating counterfactuals.