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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Traffic flow forecasting, STL decomposition, Hybrid model...
Fujiang Yuan, Yangrui Fan, Xiaohuan Bing, Zhen Tian, Chunhong Yu · 2025-10-26 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Accurate traffic flow forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems and urban traffic management. However, single model approaches often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear, and multi scale temporal patterns in traffic flow data. This study proposes a decomposition driven hybrid framework that integrates Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) with three complementary predictive models. STL first decomposes the original time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Then, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network models long term trends, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model captures seasonal periodicity, and an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm predicts nonlinear residual fluctuations. The final forecast is obtained through multiplicative integration of the sub model predictions. Using 998 traffic flow records from a New York City intersection between November and December 2015, results show that the LSTM ARIMA XGBoost hybrid model significantly outperforms standalone models including LSTM, ARIMA, and XGBoost across MAE, RMSE, and R squared metrics. The decomposition strategy effectively isolates temporal characteristics, allowing each model to specialize, thereby improving prediction accuracy, interpretability, and robustness.