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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Good Rankings, Wrong Probabilities: A Calibration Audit o...
Sajad Ghawami · 2026-04-06 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Multimodal deep learning models that fuse whole-slide histopathology images with genomic data have achieved strong discriminative performance for cancer survival prediction, as measured by the concordance index. Yet whether the survival probabilities derived from these models - either directly from native outputs or via standard post-hoc reconstruction - are calibrated remains largely unexamined. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first systematic fold-level 1-calibration audit of multimodal WSI-genomics survival architectures, evaluating native discrete-time survival outputs (Experiment A: 3 models on TCGA-BRCA) and Breslow-reconstructed survival curves from scalar risk scores (Experiment B: 11 architectures across 5 TCGA cancer types). In Experiment A, all three models fail 1-calibration on a majority of folds (12 of 15 fold-level tests reject after Benjamini-Hochberg correction). Across the full 290 fold-level tests, 166 reject the null of correct calibration at the median event time after Benjamini-Hochberg correction (FDR = 0.05). MCAT achieves C-index 0.817 on GBMLGG yet fails 1-calibration on all five folds. Gating-based fusion is associated with better calibration; bilinear and concatenation fusion are not. Post-hoc Platt scaling reduces miscalibration at the evaluated horizon (e.g., MCAT: 5/5 folds failing to 2/5) without affecting discrimination. The concordance index alone is insufficient for evaluating survival models intended for clinical use.