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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Online Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via...
Haonan Wen, Hanyang Chen, Songhe Feng · 2026-05-27 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Irregular multivariate time series forecasting is critical in many real-world applications, where time series are irregularly sampled and exhibit dynamically evolving missingness patterns. Although existing methods perform well in offline settings, they often suffer from significant performance degradation when deployed online due to dynamic shifts in data distribution. Maintaining forecasting capability in such dynamic scenarios typically necessitates online adaptation techniques. Since irregular sampling fundamentally undermines temporal continuity and periodicity, we cannot leverage these widely studied characteristics from regular MTS for online learning. To this end, we study the problem of online IMTS forecasting and propose Under-Cali, an uncertainty-driven dual-expert calibration framework consisting of three core components: an uncertainty estimator, a dual-expert calibration module, and an adaptive routing module. We design an uncertainty estimator that serves as the core control signal to jointly manage inference and adaptation processes. In our framework, the uncertainty estimator first assesses uncertainty for each incoming batch. The adaptive routing module then directs samples with high uncertainty to the unreliable expert for calibration, while low uncertainty samples remain with the reliable expert. Subsequently, the system updates the reliable expert and the uncertainty estimator using well-calibrated reliable samples, and updates the unreliable expert with challenging samples, enabling stable and efficient online learning. Under-Cali keeps the source forecasting model frozen and performs adaptation only through a lightweight, model-agnostic calibration module, enabling efficient adaptation. Extensive experiments on IMTS benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements with low computational cost. Our code is available at https://github.com/HaonanWen/Under-Cali.