Call me Samwell Tarly, because I'm studying the history of Westeros again. While we are finally able to start season 3 of House of the Dragon, the Game of Thrones prequel series, I can't help but try and guess and predict what events and characters from George R. R. Martin's books we'll see next. Here's what I, an amateur fictional historian, think will happen on House of the Dragonseason 3. Spoilers ahead, in a way!
Gaming out what's going to happen over the next and final two seasons of House of the Dragon is an interesting task. On one hand, the fact that they have only two more seasons to finish telling this story should make it easy to figure out what will happen when. The book is completed, after all. But the Dance of the Dragons civil war is only covered in a small section of Fire & Blood, the House Targaryen "history book" that House of the Dragon is based on. The story of the few survivors keeps going. And like real nonfictional historical events, there was more than one event that marked the end of the war. So we kind of know how and when the show will end, but also we don't.
So, how am I going to figure this out? In the history of Westeros, this war begins in the year 129 AC and ends in the year 131 AC. House of the Dragon season 1 started more than a decade before the war, and then ended right at the beginning of 129 AC. The second season took place in 129 AC. I think it would be safe to bet that season 3 will roughly cover most of the events of 130 AC, and season 4 will go from the end of 130 AC to the beginning of 131 AC, and possibly beyond.
Several major characters could, and probably will, die in season 3. One of the reasons that House of the Dragon is fated to be a four-season show is that, unfortunately, most of the main characters do not survive this civil war. Don't read on if you don't want to get spoiled... I'm talking Red Wedding levels of spoilage, here.
At long last, the House of the Dragon season 3 began with the "Battle of the Gullet.” It involved the warships from the Triarchy that Tyland Lannister secured in the season 2 finale, as well as Corlys Velaryon the Sea Snake's fleet. The battle has thousands of casualties, including Rhaenyra's heir Jace and his dragon Vermax, and permanently destroys areas of Driftmark. (There's a reason that Game of Thrones never went to Driftmark and we never met members of House Velaryon before this prequel series.)
Fire & Blood’s account of The Gullet also involves the young Prince Aegon and Viserys Targaryen, Rhaenyra and Daemon's sons, who at the end of season 2 left the Vale to travel across the narrow sea to Pentos. In the book their ship, the "Gay Abandon," gets intercepted. Baby Viserys is taken prisoner by Admiral Sharako Lohar (Tyland's new bestie/mud-wrestling champion played by Abigail Thorn) and baby Aegon escapes on the back of his dragon.
That does not happen in the season 3 premiere. Unsurprising, as their dragons on the show are the size of cats. Plus, Sharako Lohar dies in the first episode back–a pretty big change from the book. That said, I would not be shocked if something happens with the little Targ kiddos on their journey later on this season.
Daemon may have escaped the haunted castle of Harrenhal with a new feminist outlook on life, but Aemond Targaryen arrives toward the beginning of season 3, unless they change this from the book. Now it’s his turn to suffer at the hands of Alys Rivers after the Greens retake the castle and Aemond kills Simon Strong. In the book, Alys actually gets pregnant and claims that Aemond is the father of her bastard child. So we'll certainly be seeing more of her.
There's also a rumor, according to the book, that Alys seduced Ser Criston Cole. He’s still in the field and fully defending rapists (likely place for him to be) at the start of the season, however, so we’ll see.
The big power shift in season 3 will occur when Rhaenyra lays siege to the city where she grew up and finally gets to sit on the Iron Throne. The victory at the Gullet and Rhaenyra’s anger over her latest son’s death paves the way for this to happen. The “weeks ahead” trailer allude to it as well. It also shows Ormund Hightower (James Norton) stepping into the spotlight as lowkey a villain this season. That’s new!
In the books, Rhaenyra beheads Otto Hightower when she gets to King’s Landing, and imprisons both Alicent and Helaena. A short while later, Helaena dies by suicide after jumping from a tower... but the series may reveal she was pushed. Me personally? I think they won’t be able to resist a murder mystery with her. Meanwhile, Alicent's brother Gwayne Hightower dies in the siege as well, though as of the season 3 premiere he’s on the battlefield with Criston.
Why not just end House of the Dragon there, you ask? Because the war doesn't end there! It gets very messy and complicated. While she was once known as the Realm's Delight, the people of King's Landing turn on her. Even the Velaryon navy join the uprising against her. I don't think all of that will happen in season 3, but her rule should at least start to crack. She gets paranoid, and honestly, for good reason!
Speaking of betrayal, both Ulf and Hugh–the bastard dragon riders we got to know in season 2–will switch sides and start fighting for the Greens. They defect at a battle called the First Battle of Tumbleton, which I predict will happen towards the end of season 3. (There is a Second Battle of Tumbleton that I think will be a big season 4 blow-out. It kills off as many named characters as we expected from that one battle in Game of Thrones season 8, if you catch my drift.)
Meanwhile, Alicent's oldest son starts plotting. The usurper King left at the end of season 2 with Larys Strong, and they intended to go to Bravos. In the book, they only make it as far as Dragonstone. There, Aegon stages a coup against Rhaenyra on her home turf. They basically switch places, and if the show draws this out it could be kind of fun.
This event from the books, which I think will most likely happen at the end of season 3, is less of a battle and more of a duel between Daemon Targaryen and Aemond Targaryen. Spoiler alert: both of them die. If House of the Dragon season 3 kills off one of the main three characters, my prediction is Daemon.
However, the book claims that Daemon might have secretly survived and left Westeros, and I wouldn't put it past the show to lean into that idea to keep Matt Smith around for one more season. Or maybe I'm totally wrong, and God’s Eye won't happen until season 4, in which case I apologize for spoiling an episode of television we probably won't see until the next US presidential election year.
Let's wrap up with something else to look forward to: new characters! We know that Alicent's youngest son Daeron Targaryen has a dragon and a good reputation in Old Town, but he hasn't been seen yet on House of the Dragon. Surely his time has come and we'll see him in season 3, right? He might have been the young man standing behind Ormund Hightower during the scene with the smelly messenger, IYKYK.
Two contenders for the Iron Throne come out of left field at the end of the war: a former squire named Trystane Truefyre and a possible Targaryen bastard called Gaemon Palehair. IMHO we should meet them in season 3. If the show returns to the North, we could see Jeyne Arryn's girlfriend Jessamyn Redfort and/or a Stark bastard named Sara Snow. Meanwhile, in Essos, tiny Viserys Targaryen is raised in captivity by a magister named Bambarro Bazanne and later by members of House Rogare in Essos. He does eventually return to Westeros, but if we see that on screen I think it will definitely be in season 4.
Finally, there is a mysterious character named Nettles in the book whose storyline may or may not have been given to Rhaena Targaryen on the show. Sheepstealer is his dragon in the book, but obviously Rhaena has essentially claimed Sheepstealer for herself at this point (to disastrous results). Can't wait to find out what happens there!
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