Do you believe in miracles? Perhaps the basketball gods do, given the situation entering the remainder of the 2026 NBA Finals. On one hand, the New York Knicks sit one game away from the franchise’s championship drought coming to a merciful end to deliver this fanbase’s first title since 1973. On the other hand, the San Antonio Spurs would make history if they can survive and complete a comeback from down 3-1 in the series to accomplish the improbable.

Either way, Saturday’s Game 5 brings either team a step closer to those outcomes. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas.

Here’s a Knicks vs. Spurs prediction and pick for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Knicks vs. Spurs prediction, preview

What have we learned in this series? No lead is ever safe in the NBA Finals. The Knicks rallied from down 14 points in Game 1 to secure a win in the opener, then both sides battled back from similar deficits in Game 2 before New York emerged victorious. In Game 4, the home faithful at Madison Square Garden were treated to the greatest comeback in Finals history as their team surmounted a 29-point deficit in the second half and escaped with a last-second win on a tip-in from OG Anunoby which Karl-Anthony Towns referred to as the “Right hand from God.”

Tonight, the series shifts back to San Antonio, where the Spurs have been marginally worse throughout these NBA Playoffs. They’re 6-5 across 11 games there, averaging 5.6 fewer PPG and shooting 2.1 percentage points worse from three-point range on their own floor. Will the fact that they’ve been something of a road warrior have an impact tonight? After dropping the first two matchups of this series at the Frost Bank Center, there’s a feeling that perhaps those statistical trends could play a role. That’s solidified by the Knicks’ 8-1 record on the road during their own postseason run, averaging 4.7 more PPG while shooting 3.6% better from deep in the away split. These aren’t end-all, be-all types of numbers, but they’re worth noting nonetheless.

As for some more trends, the improvement of Jalen Brunson over the course of this series is certainly worth a shout. The All-Star guard has posted 30+ points three times in four tries, but shot just 38.7% and 28.0% from the field over the first two games. After those poor showings, he scored 32 points on a 44.0% FG% before notching 36 on a 48.0% FG% in Game 4, also dishing seven assists as well. While Karl-Anthony Towns has been quieter over the last two outings with 11 and 13 points, notably taking just five shots last time out, OG Anunoby has been on a heater of his own. The hero of Game 4 recorded 33 points with seven made threes to complement his game-winning shot — and has scored at least 17 points in all four matchups with blazing splits of a 58.0% FG% and a 55.6% 3P%.

Meanwhile, the Spurs’ stars have produced varying results. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 27.8 points and 10.5 rebounds in this series but has shot 36.0% or worse from the field in two games, both of which were losses. He needs to be on his A-game for his team to hang around, especially with his guards’ lack of efficiency. Stephon Castle has had a couple of ugly nights and comes off his worst game of the series with 13 points on a 28.6% FG%. De’Aaron Fox continues to finish at a low 38.2% clip with just 14.3 PPG in the series, too. Clearly, the Knicks’ defense has helped to slow down the perimeter creators while elevating turnovers from Fox in particular.

Knicks vs. Spurs pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Spurs are a -5.5 home favorite with -205 odds on the Moneyline. The Knicks hold +170 odds of an outright win on the road with the game total set at 215.5 points.

Betting splits show 55% of straight wagers on New York to win, 69% on the Knicks to cover the spread, and 53% on the total’s under.

The historic collapse from San Antonio last time out surely will be on the minds of its rotation tonight. It was the kind of performance that a team should immediately put in the rearview, and there’s no doubt that’s been the talk since Thursday night’s events. However, the Spurs are young and have showed throughout this series that perhaps they lack some of the resilience needed to weather the storm. Plus, only 15 teams in NBA history have ever come back from down 3-1 in a playoff series. That’s sure to be on the Spurs’ minds as well, even though the framing surely looks to focus only on the 48 minutes needed to extend their season here. As the Knicks showed in recent weeks though, this sport is a game of runs — the momentum can swing in an instant. It’s certainly in the visitors’ favor heading into tonight’s Game 5.

That’s exactly why the +5.5 spread makes sense as a top betting pick for Saturday night. New York has proven itself time and again in this postseason, particularly showing in this series that it can’t be counted out despite whatever the scoreboard may say. Yes, a 29-point comeback feels like more of an outlier, but the Knicks came back from down 14 and 13 points in their first two wins on the road. Even in their Game 3 loss at home, they were down 12 at one point in the first half and managed to take the lead heading into the intermission before falling by four points in the end.

In this playoff run, they’re a combined 13-5 against the spread. Beyond that, their only losses in these NBA Playoffs have come by a combined six points across three games and were decided by one, one, and four points. It’s become clear this team will keep things close more often than not, so taking them to cover at +5.5 tonight earns top billing on the betting card.

Best Bet: NY Knicks +5.5 (-112)