Charlie Cummings gives his best bet and prediction for the Iran vs. New Zealand World Cup match on Monday, June 15.
Best Bets: Iran Moneyline -125, Under 2.5 Total Goals -170, Mehdi Taremi 1+ Goal or Assist (+110)
Low-scoring, tense affairs have been the theme of the World Cup so far. Iran should handle the majority of the possession here, counting on Mehdi Taremi to produce the magic, but they won’t want to expose themselves to the counter. That’s where the low goal-scoring total comes into play, although I ultimately expect Taremi to bring it to this New Zealand back line.
Group G is off to a roaring start on Monday, with Belgium and Egypt playing to a testy 1-1 draw. That means that the winner of tonight’s Iran vs. New Zealand contest moves into pole position in the group. This one is going to be intense. Let’s get into a preview of both teams, then a prediction for the match.
To say the Iranian run-up to this World Cup has been intense would be an understatement. Due to visa restrictions, the team was forced to relocate their base camp and leave key personnel at home. It was entirely unclear what kind of reception they would get in the U.S., but they’re keeping their heads held high and focusing on the goal: making noise in the World Cup.
It all starts with Mehdi Taremi. Their star striker always steps up for big tournaments. In the 2022 World Cup, Taremi bagged two goals and an assist in the group stage, along with eight goals and two assists in the qualifiers. This year, Taremi has taken it a step further, netting 10 goals and seven assists across 15 qualifying matches. If there are goals to be scored for the Iranian side, the Olympiacos striker will be in the middle of it.
Taremi’s ability to play all over the top four opens up a lot of options. Mohammad Mohebi (FC Rostov) has produced some strong results on the wing, and Ali Alipour (Persepolis) thrives when playing above Taremi. Standard Liege attacker Dennis Eckert can play as an attacking midfielder or striker, adding to the versatility. Saman Ghoddos (Al Ittihad) figures to play a prominent attacking role off the bench for manager Amir Ghalenoei later in the game.
A significant question for Iran is defense. Veteran goalkeeper Hossein Hosseini has come up big for Iran in the past, but their back line has been undisciplined, especially when it comes to cards. Can they keep their cool tonight against New Zealand’s experienced forward group? That may decide this match.
It’s incredible that New Zealand is here in the first place. This is only their third appearance at the World Cup, and first since 2010. The national side have never made it out of the group stage; for that matter, they’ve never won a match in the World Cup. This is the chance to make national history.
The Kiwis dominated the Oceania qualifiers, winning all five matches with a 29-1 goal differential. Much like Iran, it all starts with their attack. Chris Wood is still getting it done for Nottingham Forest and will need some moments of magic if New Zealand are to advance. But he’s not alone up there; Matthew Garbett (Peterborough), Callum McCowatt (Silkeborg), and Elijah Just (Motherwell) have all produced big moments in the past.
In the back, they lean on their veterans. 37-year-old Minnesota United center back Michael Boxall is heavily relied on to bring the composure. Right back Tim Payne (Wellington) brings a serious defensive edge to the team. That’s balanced by left back Liberato Cacace (Wrexham), who can play higher up and create overloads on the left side. Sheffield United’s Tyler Bindon is likely to get the call in the last spot on the back four, but if the 21-year-old can’t handle the pressure of being a World Cup underdog, manager Darren Bazeley has a lot of veterans to call upon. Max Crocombe, the only true veteran goalkeeper on the roster, has racked up many clean sheets in his national team career and is accustomed to pressure.
The formula is set up well for the New Zealanders. Play deep in the box, trust in your veteran defenders, and count on Chris Wood being an elite poacher up top. It’s not the greatest formula for success, but as we’ve seen already in this World Cup, crazy things can happen. There’s no time like the present for New Zealand to pick up its first-ever World Cup win.
Prediction: The imbalanced matchups have proved to be the toughest at this World Cup. With the expanded 48-team group stage that eliminates one-third of the field instead of one-half, nobody wants to drop the first game. Teams like Spain, Turkey, Belgium, and Switzerland have dropped points despite having massive possession advantages. Ultimately, the Iranians have too much attacking talent to drop this, but this is going to be a tight, low-scoring affair. A 1-0 or 2-0 Iranian win to set the tone for the group sounds about right.
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