Charlie Cummings gives his best bet and prediction for the Australia vs. Turkey World Cup match on Saturday, June 13.
Best Bets: Turkey Moneyline -140, Under 2.5 Total Goals (-125), Kenan Yildiz Anytime Goal Scorer +260
I like what this Australian defense brings to the table, and these opening matches have been gritty affairs. Expect both teams to be cagey in the first half, before Turkey’s young talent breaks through in the second half.
Group D feels awfully wide open in this World Cup. Turkey and Australia are both candidates to advance to the knockout rounds as sneaky, dangerous teams with strong cohesion and talent. This is a real three-pointer to kick off their respective World Cup campaigns.
Australia (FIFA Rank: 27)
Australia’s success starts from the back. Manager Tony Popovic has favored a 3-4-2-1 formation, but was willing to drop his wide backs down during their friendly contest with Mexico, the strongest side they’ve faced in the run-up. The back three is an awfully fun group, with Leicester man Harry Souttar centering and youngsters Lucas Harrington (Colorado Rapids) and Alessandro Circati (Parma). Kai Trewin (NYCFC) and Aziz Behich (Melbourne FC) are favorites to start out wide, but Jordan Bos (Feyenoord) has played well, and is a candidate for starts ahead of the 35-year-old Behich.
The central midfield also favors the defense. Aiden O’Neill, another NYCFC man, is a fixture above the back line for the Socceroos. But the second spot is up for grabs between Jackson Irvine (FC St. Pauli) and 21-year-old Paul Okon-Engstler (Sydney FC). If Popovic goes for the five-man back line, Irvine is likely to get the nod as a more attacking center mid, while Okon-Engstler figures to feature in the 3-4-2-1.
Attack is a serious question mark for Australia, both in terms of lineup selection and talent. Deni Juric played a lot of minutes up top during their friendlies, but was dropped from the squad. That’s a vote of confidence in Norwich City striker Mohamed Touré. Awer Mabil (Castellon) and Cristian Volpato (Sassuolo) figure to have the inside track on the two attacking mid spots, but Ajdin Hrustic (Heracles) figures to see some time up top.
The Socceroos have to be strong at the back in this group stage to have a hope at advancing. Luckily, they’re in good form on that end, allowing one goal or less in all four of their 2026 friendlies. If they can generate enough attack, they’re a sneaky candidate in Group D, and can make a second straight knockout stage.
Turkey (FIFA Rank: 22)
You hear a lot of “golden generation” talk for teams at every World Cup. This may be the start of the Turkish golden generation. This is the third time in team history that Turkey has made the Cup; they had a group-stage exit in 1954, their first-ever appearance, before shocking the world in 2002. That run saw them advance out of the group stage for the first time, then pull back-to-back upsets over Japan and Senegal to reach the semifinals. Brazil, the only team to beat them in 2002, ended the run on their way to the title. But few have forgotten that third-place finish. This Turkish team has the chance to make them proud.
Turkey brings a staggering amount of midfield talent to this World Cup. It starts with Arda Güler, who played excellent football at Real Madrid this past season; the 21-year-old racked up a career-high 23 goal involvements in 57 games. He’s flanked by Kenan Yildiz, who is a rising star for Juventus in Serie A. Can Uzun, more of a hybrid attacking mid/winger, was excellent for Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga. All 21 years old or younger, that trio is scary for the rest of the world. Hakan Çalhanoglu has produced some huge moments for Turkey in the past, and figures to play an important role in the midfield attack. Orkun Kökcü plays an important defensive midfield role, with Salih Özcan backing up multiple positions. It’s an embarrassment of riches in the center and on the wings for manager Vincenzo Montella.
The questions come at the back. Hoffenheim man Ozan Kabak’s star has fallen somewhat, but he’s still reliable at center back, if not unspectacular. Montella places great trust in Abdülkerim Bardakci (Galatasaray), with Samet Akaydin (Rizespor) also getting a fair amount of time in the center. The wing-backs in the 4-2-3-1 are up in the air. Ferdi Kadioglu (Brighton), Zeki Çelik (Roma), Mert Müldür (Fenerbahçe), and Merih Demiral (Al Ahli) have all played a fair bit in the lead-up to the cup. It’ll be interesting to see who Montella chooses as his two outside men.
Up top, it’s all about Kerem Aktürkoglu. The Fenerbahçe striker netted 16 goals across all competitions for the second year in a row in the Super Lig, and found the back of the net three times in the seven World Cup qualifying matches. On the shorter side for a striker, he’s more of a mobile poacher and does well getting behind the line. If he can capitalize on the service from Güler and Yildiz, this could be a very productive World Cup for the 27-year-old.
For my money, Turkey is the best team in Group D. Sorry to all those bleeding red, white, and blue. If they secure the group win, they’re set up well for a deep knockout run. Who knows, it may be 2002 all over again.
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