The NBA and NHL may have finished their respective seasons over the weekend, but the MLB is here to get us through the dog days of summer. On Monday night, there’s a 10-game slate to pick from. Out in Arizona, the Diamondbacks are set to host the Los Angeles Angels in the late window, setting up a battle between starters Walbert Urena and Ryne Nelson.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Angels vs. Diamondbacks matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Angels vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels may be 6-4 over their last 10 games, but the struggles continue for this club in the bigger picture. Their 29-43 record is tied for worst in the AL and they remain dead last in their division as well. A -38 run differential doesn’t help, though it speaks more to the state of the pitching staff than anything else since the offense is actually somewhat respectable. Los Angeles averages 4.49 runs per game and is more productive on the road with 5.00. A .707 OPS ranks around the middle of the pack on a slash line of .236/.319/.389, and a BABIP of .294 sits 11th as well. Notably, there’s not a major difference in the team’s lefty/righty splits — the numbers against RHP like they’ll face tonight are .237/.318/.388 with a .705 OPS and 58 of their 81 homers. The Halos also a .152 ISO, but swinging for power also has them dead last in K% at 24.9%.

Rookie RHP Walbert Urena gets the start tonight with 12 games under his belt and a 4-4 record. He’s been quite solid, earning a 2.44 ERA with 55 Ks in 55.1 IP, though a 1.36 WHIP could improve. His offspeed pitches are excellent and he’s delivered 92nd-percentile grades in xBA and average fastball velocity, also sitting 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate. The bullpen behind him is among the MLB’s worst though, producing a 4.81 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.4% K-BB%.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs have hit a little bit of a skid lately at 4-6 across their last 10 outings. While they’re still third in the NL West at 36-35, a -20 run differential leaves a lot to be desired. The good news is that they’re 21-14 at home, though they average 4.23 runs per game and have a very slight downtick to 4.21 at their own park. The club’s bats aren’t at their peak by any means this year, producing an OPS of .691 that ranks 26th in the MLB. The .237/.306/.385 slash line leaves much to be desired, as does a .278 BABIP and .306 wOBA. They could further be in trouble tonight with the lesser of their splits against righties at a .225/.298/.365 slash line for a .663 OPS, launching 45 of their 63 deep balls. Arizona is also 20th in ISO at .147 and has an 0.41 BB/K ratio, garnering the fourth lowest K% at 20.3%.

RHP Ryne Nelson will throw for the Snakes tonight with a 2-5 record in 14 games. He has a 5.19 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 76.1 IP. Nelson has above-average velo on the fastball and a good chase rate to complement a 6.7% BB%, but his average exit velocity is poor and he forces few ground balls. Arizona’s relievers have an ERA of 4.06, a 1.22 WHIP and a 12.1% K-BB%.

Angels vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -132 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Angels are +109 underdogs to win outright with the run total set at an even nine.

Best Bet: Walbert Urena over 15.5 outs recorded (+101)

A pitcher prop for Urena makes lots of sense in this spot against a weak lineup that hasn’t hit right-handers well at all this season. The young arm gives up a lot of walks but largely keeps hits and earned runs to a minimum. He does have a fairly short hook after going just 5.0 innings or fewer in five of his 10 starts, however, he’s set up for a longer outing this evening. Urena hasn’t given up more than five hits in nine of his 10 starts and has kept earned runs to two or fewer in all but two. Los Angeles’ bullpen isn’t good enough for me to back him for a win tonight, but there’s a really good chance he goes a little deeper into the outing than he typically would since the D-Backs don’t hit well against RHP. Plus, they’re cold at the moment with an MLB-worst OPS of .631 in the last two weeks, so this is a team to fade at the plate.